Each
action, each deed, is like falling knives striking melted butter. Each
action divides the present into the future and past, forever rendering
the possible from the achieved. Each action seems to cut away
possibilities, yet there are always infinite possibilities. Each action
divides the present yet the present always exists immutable. The
universe is built on a foundation so strong it can take the continuing
rain of an infinite number of knives and survive. How can this be?
Sunday, December 21, 2008
Technosanity #20: World Energy Outlook 2008
The World Energy Outlook is a yearly publication from the International Energy Agency
giving the official projection of the future energy outlook. They just
released the 2008 report and there are a couple slide decks available
giving some hints of what is contained in the report.
WEO 2008 Presentation at COP 14 Side Event
Launch of World Energy Outlook 2008
World primary energy demand in the reference scenario - they say it's "unsustainable" without explaining why. World energy demand expands by 45% between now and 2030, a very rapid rise, an average rate of increase of 1.6% per year, with coal accounting for more than a third of the overall rise.
Demand for coal has been growing faster than any other energy source & is projected to account for more than a third of incremental global energy demand to 2030
World oil production by source is very scary. The IEA figures show a decline in crude oil production from the currently producing fields begining in 2008. er.. That decline has already begun? There is a growing gap in production of the currently producing fields and their claimed future oil production. What makes up that gap is crude oil from fields that are yet to be developed, and this includes use of enhanced oil recovery techniques. They further explain that 64 million barrels per day of capacity needs to be installed between 2007 and 2030, which is six times the current capacity of Saudi Arabia. From where will the money come to pay for this infrastructure even if the oil is there to fill the demand?
97% of the projected increase in emissions between now & 2030 comes from non-OECD countries –three-quarters from China, India & the Middle East alone
OECD countries alone cannot put the world onto a 450-ppm trajectory, even if they were to reduce their emissions to zero
These last two slides show that the problem is coming from the developing countries, primarily China and India. They are of course where the hugest quantity of industrialization is occuring.
World primary energy demand in the reference scenario - they say it's "unsustainable" without explaining why. World energy demand expands by 45% between now and 2030, a very rapid rise, an average rate of increase of 1.6% per year, with coal accounting for more than a third of the overall rise.
Demand for coal has been growing faster than any other energy source & is projected to account for more than a third of incremental global energy demand to 2030
World oil production by source is very scary. The IEA figures show a decline in crude oil production from the currently producing fields begining in 2008. er.. That decline has already begun? There is a growing gap in production of the currently producing fields and their claimed future oil production. What makes up that gap is crude oil from fields that are yet to be developed, and this includes use of enhanced oil recovery techniques. They further explain that 64 million barrels per day of capacity needs to be installed between 2007 and 2030, which is six times the current capacity of Saudi Arabia. From where will the money come to pay for this infrastructure even if the oil is there to fill the demand?
97% of the projected increase in emissions between now & 2030 comes from non-OECD countries –three-quarters from China, India & the Middle East alone
OECD countries alone cannot put the world onto a 450-ppm trajectory, even if they were to reduce their emissions to zero
These last two slides show that the problem is coming from the developing countries, primarily China and India. They are of course where the hugest quantity of industrialization is occuring.
Current energy trends are patently unsustainable —socially, environmentally, economically
Oil will remain the leading energy source but...
To avoid "abrupt and irreversible" climate change we need a major decarbonisation of the world’s energy system
The present economic worries do not excuse back-tracking or delays in taking action to address energy challenges
Technosanity #20: World Energy Outlook 2008
Links: World Energy Outlook
Links: International Energy Agency
Links: WEO 2008 Presentation at COP 14 Side Event
Links: Launch of World Energy Outlook 2008
WEO 2008 Presentation at COP 14 Side Event
Launch of World Energy Outlook 2008
World primary energy demand in the reference scenario - they say it's "unsustainable" without explaining why. World energy demand expands by 45% between now and 2030, a very rapid rise, an average rate of increase of 1.6% per year, with coal accounting for more than a third of the overall rise.
Demand for coal has been growing faster than any other energy source & is projected to account for more than a third of incremental global energy demand to 2030
World oil production by source is very scary. The IEA figures show a decline in crude oil production from the currently producing fields begining in 2008. er.. That decline has already begun? There is a growing gap in production of the currently producing fields and their claimed future oil production. What makes up that gap is crude oil from fields that are yet to be developed, and this includes use of enhanced oil recovery techniques. They further explain that 64 million barrels per day of capacity needs to be installed between 2007 and 2030, which is six times the current capacity of Saudi Arabia. From where will the money come to pay for this infrastructure even if the oil is there to fill the demand?
97% of the projected increase in emissions between now & 2030 comes from non-OECD countries –three-quarters from China, India & the Middle East alone
OECD countries alone cannot put the world onto a 450-ppm trajectory, even if they were to reduce their emissions to zero
These last two slides show that the problem is coming from the developing countries, primarily China and India. They are of course where the hugest quantity of industrialization is occuring.
World primary energy demand in the reference scenario - they say it's "unsustainable" without explaining why. World energy demand expands by 45% between now and 2030, a very rapid rise, an average rate of increase of 1.6% per year, with coal accounting for more than a third of the overall rise.
Demand for coal has been growing faster than any other energy source & is projected to account for more than a third of incremental global energy demand to 2030
World oil production by source is very scary. The IEA figures show a decline in crude oil production from the currently producing fields begining in 2008. er.. That decline has already begun? There is a growing gap in production of the currently producing fields and their claimed future oil production. What makes up that gap is crude oil from fields that are yet to be developed, and this includes use of enhanced oil recovery techniques. They further explain that 64 million barrels per day of capacity needs to be installed between 2007 and 2030, which is six times the current capacity of Saudi Arabia. From where will the money come to pay for this infrastructure even if the oil is there to fill the demand?
97% of the projected increase in emissions between now & 2030 comes from non-OECD countries –three-quarters from China, India & the Middle East alone
OECD countries alone cannot put the world onto a 450-ppm trajectory, even if they were to reduce their emissions to zero
These last two slides show that the problem is coming from the developing countries, primarily China and India. They are of course where the hugest quantity of industrialization is occuring.
Current energy trends are patently unsustainable —socially, environmentally, economically
Oil will remain the leading energy source but...
- The era of cheap oil is over, although price volatility will remain
- Oilfield decline is the keydeterminant of investment needs
- The oil market is undergoing major and lasting structural change, with national companies in the ascendancy
To avoid "abrupt and irreversible" climate change we need a major decarbonisation of the world’s energy system
- Copenhagen must deliver a credible post-2012 climate regime
- Limiting temperature rise to 2°C will require significant emission reductions in allregions & technological breakthroughs
- Mitigating climate change will substantially improve energy security
The present economic worries do not excuse back-tracking or delays in taking action to address energy challenges
Technosanity #20: World Energy Outlook 2008
Links: World Energy Outlook
Links: International Energy Agency
Links: WEO 2008 Presentation at COP 14 Side Event
Links: Launch of World Energy Outlook 2008
Sunday, November 2, 2008
Technosanity #18: Matt Simmons discussing oil supply disruptions
Matt Simmons
is Chairman of Simmons & Company International, a specialized
energy investment banking firm. Mr. Simmons' recently published book
Twilight in the Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy
has been listed on the Wall Street Journal's best-seller list. He has
also published numerous energy papers for industry journals and is a
frequent speaker at government forums, energy symposiums and in board
rooms of many leading energy companies around the world. Mr. Simmons is
married and has five daughters. His hobbies include watercolors,
cooking, writing and travel.
His presentation is to warn of a 'run on the bank' as it applies to oil supplies. He warns of how this can cause a major disruption very quickly and which is a gravely serious problem. There's an analogy to how quickly the financial system melted down.
Slides: http://www.aspo-usa.org/aspousa4/proceedings/Simmons_Matthew_ASPOUSA2008.pdf
The meltdown demonstrated various flaws in the financial system which had been built. The lack of regulation, the high leverage figures, it all made for a nonresiliant system which collapsed like a house of cards. There was an illusion that the bigger the financial institution the more it was too big to fail, but we saw giants fall.
Risk is a very real thing. Leverage can be dangerous. Audited financial numbers do not always represent genuine reality.
In the oil industry there is even less knowledge about the true situation. In the financial system there is regulation and required disclosures, even as much of that system has been deregulated. In the oil industry there is no regulation, there is no federal reserve, no watchdogs, etc.
Just like the quick collapse of the financial system, can the oil industry also go through a quick collapse and what is the effect if it does? The question to be concerned over is how resiliant is the oil delivery system to disruption. How easily can oil supplies be disrupted? How much cushion is in the system to even out disruptions? What alternatives do we have if oil supply is disrupted to us? What is the effect on our daily life?
The system collapsing means we could still have oil in the ground but have a society unable to function to the level required to deliver it to market as a finished product.
Energy Oxymorons:
"We need Energy independence" -- 100% impossible to create
"Technology is a game changer" -- Technologies have zero impact on these risks
"Drill our way out of this mess" -- No spare rigs and no places to drill where oil can be retrieved easily
"Energy system is efficient and transparent" -- Much hidden data rather than the great transparency of the financial system
Technosanity #18: Matt Simmons discussing oil supply disruptions
Links: Matt Simmons bio
Links: http://www.aspo-usa.org/aspousa4/proceedings/Simmons_Matthew_ASPOUSA2008.pdf
His presentation is to warn of a 'run on the bank' as it applies to oil supplies. He warns of how this can cause a major disruption very quickly and which is a gravely serious problem. There's an analogy to how quickly the financial system melted down.
Slides: http://www.aspo-usa.org/aspousa4/proceedings/Simmons_Matthew_ASPOUSA2008.pdf
The meltdown demonstrated various flaws in the financial system which had been built. The lack of regulation, the high leverage figures, it all made for a nonresiliant system which collapsed like a house of cards. There was an illusion that the bigger the financial institution the more it was too big to fail, but we saw giants fall.
Risk is a very real thing. Leverage can be dangerous. Audited financial numbers do not always represent genuine reality.
In the oil industry there is even less knowledge about the true situation. In the financial system there is regulation and required disclosures, even as much of that system has been deregulated. In the oil industry there is no regulation, there is no federal reserve, no watchdogs, etc.
Just like the quick collapse of the financial system, can the oil industry also go through a quick collapse and what is the effect if it does? The question to be concerned over is how resiliant is the oil delivery system to disruption. How easily can oil supplies be disrupted? How much cushion is in the system to even out disruptions? What alternatives do we have if oil supply is disrupted to us? What is the effect on our daily life?
The system collapsing means we could still have oil in the ground but have a society unable to function to the level required to deliver it to market as a finished product.
Energy Oxymorons:
"We need Energy independence" -- 100% impossible to create
"Technology is a game changer" -- Technologies have zero impact on these risks
"Drill our way out of this mess" -- No spare rigs and no places to drill where oil can be retrieved easily
"Energy system is efficient and transparent" -- Much hidden data rather than the great transparency of the financial system
Technosanity #18: Matt Simmons discussing oil supply disruptions
Links: Matt Simmons bio
Links: http://www.aspo-usa.org/aspousa4/proceedings/Simmons_Matthew_ASPOUSA2008.pdf
Friday, October 31, 2008
Technosanity #17: QA session with Ken Verosub, Jeremy Gilbert
Q&A session with Ken Verosub and Jeremy Gilbert immediately following the
presentations they gave and which were broadcast in immediately prior
Technosanity Podcast episodes.
Technosanity #17: QA session with Ken Verosub, Jeremy Gilbert
Technosanity #17: QA session with Ken Verosub, Jeremy Gilbert
Technosanity #16: Peak Oil Global Overview, An American Wake Up Call
A presentation at ASPO-USA 2008 by Mr. Jeremy J Gilbert, Managing Director, Barrelmore Ltd
Jeremy Gilbert. Jeremy is the recently retired Chief Petroleum Engineer
from British Petroleum (BP) where he was responsible for the company's
worldwide petroleum engineering performance and associated research and
development program. He joined BP in 1964.
His topic is a general overview of Peak Oil, specifically focusing on why it is time for America to wake up to Peak Oil. There have been a series of wake up calls, but has much changed?
While America has slept on: 2001: Discovery rates continue decades-long fall; Calculations suggest reserves can’t meet demand projections; Some recognition of political, investment risk in developing resources. 2008: No improvement in resource situation; New, more accurate, calculations of supply define earlier and clearer peak; Political will to increase supply clearly absent; prices not stimulating investment to increase supply
There are three problems: Geology, Investment, Policy of main producers. These, taken together, make the future of oil very difficult
Why are there still political leaders like Newt Gingrich or Henry Kissinger continuing to say there is no problem.
It's not a problem which higher oil prices will fully solve. According to these leaders or to most economists it is a simple problem of supply and demand. Higher demand will cause a higher price and it will do two things, incentivize customers to cut back, and incentivize energy producing countries to look for more oil or to use alternative methods. But this ignores a deeply serious problem, that in oil field after oil field it has been observed that oil production reaches a peak at the midway point, and then inevitably goes into a production decline. No amount of money will change the issue that the planet cannot provide more oil.
Technosanity #16: Peak Oil Global Overview, An American Wake Up Call
Links: http://www.aspo-usa.org/aspousa4/proceedings/Gilbert_Jeremy_ASPOUSA2008.pdf
Links: Mr. Jeremy J Gilbert, Managing Director, Barrelmore Ltd
His topic is a general overview of Peak Oil, specifically focusing on why it is time for America to wake up to Peak Oil. There have been a series of wake up calls, but has much changed?
While America has slept on: 2001: Discovery rates continue decades-long fall; Calculations suggest reserves can’t meet demand projections; Some recognition of political, investment risk in developing resources. 2008: No improvement in resource situation; New, more accurate, calculations of supply define earlier and clearer peak; Political will to increase supply clearly absent; prices not stimulating investment to increase supply
There are three problems: Geology, Investment, Policy of main producers. These, taken together, make the future of oil very difficult
Why are there still political leaders like Newt Gingrich or Henry Kissinger continuing to say there is no problem.
It's not a problem which higher oil prices will fully solve. According to these leaders or to most economists it is a simple problem of supply and demand. Higher demand will cause a higher price and it will do two things, incentivize customers to cut back, and incentivize energy producing countries to look for more oil or to use alternative methods. But this ignores a deeply serious problem, that in oil field after oil field it has been observed that oil production reaches a peak at the midway point, and then inevitably goes into a production decline. No amount of money will change the issue that the planet cannot provide more oil.
Technosanity #16: Peak Oil Global Overview, An American Wake Up Call
Links: http://www.aspo-usa.org/aspousa4/proceedings/Gilbert_Jeremy_ASPOUSA2008.pdf
Links: Mr. Jeremy J Gilbert, Managing Director, Barrelmore Ltd
Wednesday, October 29, 2008
Technosanity #15: Naomi Klein, Shock Doctrine presentation in Santa Cruz
This is a presentation given by Naomi Klein equating the financial meltdown
of August/September/October 2008 with her general thesis of the Shock
Doctrine of Disaster Capitalism. This thesis cuts to the heart of the
reshaping of whole societies, using disasters as a means to justify
enacting societal changes which would normally be untenable but under
the influence of some kind of disaster societies are more agreeable to
suggestions they would not normally accept. This idea is not new, other
writers have discussed the same pattern. After a stunning disaster the
society is in shock, and into that moment of widespread shock the
leader steps in and says "I have a plan" and offers to save the day.
What's different in Naomi Klein's thesis is the agenda.. namely of using disasters, sometimes natural sometimes invented, to push an agenda of corporatization of everything and corporate control of everything.
This is a rebroadcast of a radio program produced for Free Radio Santa Cruz 101fm of Naomi Klein talking at the Rio Theater in Santa Cruz Ca. on Oct 17, 2008
FRSC coverage of the sold out event includes the short documentary "The Shock Doctrine" by Naomi Klein and Alfonso Cuarón Watch it here http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aSF0e6oO_tw
The event was put on by the awesome folks at the Resource Center for Nonviolence and Women’s International League for Peace and Freedom. Introduction by Bill Monning music by: Thievery Corporation.
Naomi's Book: The Shock Doctrine: The Rise of Disaster Capitalism: In THE SHOCK DOCTRINE, Naomi Klein explodes the myth that the global free market triumphed democratically. Exposing the thinking, the money trail and the puppet strings behind the world-changing crises and wars of the last four decades, The Shock Doctrine is the gripping story of how America’s “free market” policies have come to dominate the world-- through the exploitation of disaster-shocked people and countries.
Recorded, edited and produced by Skidmark Bob http://popdefectradio.blogspot.com/ For Free Radio Santa Cruz 101fm
Prior coverage:
http://www.7gen.com/blog-entry/conspiracies/elites-plan-reshape-world-one-disaster-time/245
http://www.7gen.com/website-categories/disastercapitalism
http://www.7gen.com/website-categories/shockdoctrine
Technosanity #15: Naomi Klein, Shock Doctrine presentation in Santa Cruz
Links: http://radio.indymedia.org/en/node/17046
Links: http://www.naomiklein.org/shock-doctrine
Links: http://popdefectradio.blogspot.com/
Links: http://audio.davidherron.com/technosanity/FRSC_Naomi_Klein_10-17-08.mp3
What's different in Naomi Klein's thesis is the agenda.. namely of using disasters, sometimes natural sometimes invented, to push an agenda of corporatization of everything and corporate control of everything.
This is a rebroadcast of a radio program produced for Free Radio Santa Cruz 101fm of Naomi Klein talking at the Rio Theater in Santa Cruz Ca. on Oct 17, 2008
FRSC coverage of the sold out event includes the short documentary "The Shock Doctrine" by Naomi Klein and Alfonso Cuarón Watch it here http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aSF0e6oO_tw
The event was put on by the awesome folks at the Resource Center for Nonviolence and Women’s International League for Peace and Freedom. Introduction by Bill Monning music by: Thievery Corporation.
Naomi's Book: The Shock Doctrine: The Rise of Disaster Capitalism: In THE SHOCK DOCTRINE, Naomi Klein explodes the myth that the global free market triumphed democratically. Exposing the thinking, the money trail and the puppet strings behind the world-changing crises and wars of the last four decades, The Shock Doctrine is the gripping story of how America’s “free market” policies have come to dominate the world-- through the exploitation of disaster-shocked people and countries.
Recorded, edited and produced by Skidmark Bob http://popdefectradio.blogspot.com/ For Free Radio Santa Cruz 101fm
Prior coverage:
http://www.7gen.com/blog-entry/conspiracies/elites-plan-reshape-world-one-disaster-time/245
http://www.7gen.com/website-categories/disastercapitalism
http://www.7gen.com/website-categories/shockdoctrine
Technosanity #15: Naomi Klein, Shock Doctrine presentation in Santa Cruz
Links: http://radio.indymedia.org/en/node/17046
Links: http://www.naomiklein.org/shock-doctrine
Links: http://popdefectradio.blogspot.com/
Links: http://audio.davidherron.com/technosanity/FRSC_Naomi_Klein_10-17-08.mp3
Sunday, October 26, 2008
Technosanity #14: Petroleum & Peak Oil 101
Petroleum 101
Mr. Ken Verosub, Geology Professor, University of California, Davis
http://www.aspo-usa.com/aspousa4/ConfirmedSpeakers.cfm?bid=522
slides: http://www.aspo-usa.org/aspousa4/proceedings/Verosub_Ken_Petro_101_ASPOUSA2008.pdf
Specialist in paleomagnetism of sediments, the history of the geomagnetic field. He presents an introductory lecture in Petroleum Geology giving an overview of how geology & biology came together to create the gift of oil.
For the planet to create oil requires that a quantity of dead sea organisms get trapped beneath a sandy "reservoir rock" by a solid "cap rock". The decay of those sea organisms becomes oil. It takes special conditions to do this and geologists have pretty much mapped out the planet for these resources.
A salt dome is one common trap for oil to form in. And it's the easiest to find. Salt domes produce localized gravity or magnetic deviations and in some cases you can simply fly over them and see them.
Generally geologists study the subsurface conditions using "Reflector Seismology". The modern technique uses a 'thumper truck' which bang the ground real hard, and then "geophones" are used to pick up reflected sound. The pattern of reflections tells them a lot about subsurface conditions. A similar method is used at sea, with a ship towing geophones through the water.
They're able to gather 2-D and 3-D pictures of subsurface conditions which make for interesting maps of what had previously been mountain ranges, coastal planes, ocean floors, etc.
The history of an individual well is a play in three acts. Act one is the initial discovery, drilling, and development of the oil field. Act 2 is a long plateau of extracting oil. Act three is a diminishment with an inevitable decline in oil extraction.
The model behind peak oil comes from taking the production curves of a group of oil fields .. and summing them together. For example take all the fields in a given region or country, sum their production curves, and it comes close to a bell curve. M. King Hubbert put this model together.
Hubbert's prediction for U.S. oil production was made in 1956. He had the distinction of being very close to the actual results.
Discoveries lead production. Because it takes 10 or more years to develop an oil field into production, the rate of discoveries is a predictor for future oil availability. The rate of oil discoveries peaked in the early 1960's and new oil field discoveries has been in a decline ever since. If there are little or no new oil field discoveries then ultimately oil production has to decline as the existing fields peter out.
Newt Gingrich's "Drill Here, Drill Now, Pay Less" plan is shown as an example of poppycock solutions being pushed.
Finding or getting to the new oil is not easy or cheap. Offshore oil rigs cost over $1 billion apiece.
Finding big fields is unlikely. Oil company geologists have been all over the planet and their continual quest for new oil still hasn't reversed the decline in oil discoveries.
Even if new fields were to be drilled it takes 10-20 or more years to bring a field online. If we enter a decline in oil production soon, then new fields will only help in 2020 or further into the future.
The U.S. has 20 billion bbl of oil reserves. Total U.S. daily consumption in 2005 was 20.7 million per day, and we import 11.7 per day. That's approx 7 years of supply.
Major crisis due in 2015ish perhaps. 2008+7=2015. The U.S. oil production is going to be declining and the ratio of imports to usage will simply be ever-increasing. As the ratio becomes higher it makes the U.S. economy weaker and weaker, and the U.S. ever more desparate for oil.
But this guys presentation is only one set of figures. The USGS and others have different projections of future oil. They're claiming a peak further out into the future than ASPO projections say.
Another aspect is it isn't just a U.S. problem. Other countries are in on this. In particular the former-3rd-world countries which are industrializing mainly China and India are increasing their ratio of energy use. Globalization of production makes for higher transportation costs, and higher fuel usage. From that viewpoint also, in about 7 years demand for oil will exceed maximum total oil production.
What happens then?
Technosanity #14: Petroleum & Peak Oil 101
Links: http://audio.davidherron.com/technosanity/episode-14-petroleum-101.mp3
Links: http://www.aspo-usa.com/aspousa4/ConfirmedSpeakers.cfm?bid=522
Links: http://www.aspo-usa.org/aspousa4/proceedings/Verosub_Ken_Petro_101_ASPOUSA2008.p...
Mr. Ken Verosub, Geology Professor, University of California, Davis
http://www.aspo-usa.com/aspousa4/ConfirmedSpeakers.cfm?bid=522
slides: http://www.aspo-usa.org/aspousa4/proceedings/Verosub_Ken_Petro_101_ASPOUSA2008.pdf
Specialist in paleomagnetism of sediments, the history of the geomagnetic field. He presents an introductory lecture in Petroleum Geology giving an overview of how geology & biology came together to create the gift of oil.
For the planet to create oil requires that a quantity of dead sea organisms get trapped beneath a sandy "reservoir rock" by a solid "cap rock". The decay of those sea organisms becomes oil. It takes special conditions to do this and geologists have pretty much mapped out the planet for these resources.
A salt dome is one common trap for oil to form in. And it's the easiest to find. Salt domes produce localized gravity or magnetic deviations and in some cases you can simply fly over them and see them.
Generally geologists study the subsurface conditions using "Reflector Seismology". The modern technique uses a 'thumper truck' which bang the ground real hard, and then "geophones" are used to pick up reflected sound. The pattern of reflections tells them a lot about subsurface conditions. A similar method is used at sea, with a ship towing geophones through the water.
They're able to gather 2-D and 3-D pictures of subsurface conditions which make for interesting maps of what had previously been mountain ranges, coastal planes, ocean floors, etc.
The history of an individual well is a play in three acts. Act one is the initial discovery, drilling, and development of the oil field. Act 2 is a long plateau of extracting oil. Act three is a diminishment with an inevitable decline in oil extraction.
The model behind peak oil comes from taking the production curves of a group of oil fields .. and summing them together. For example take all the fields in a given region or country, sum their production curves, and it comes close to a bell curve. M. King Hubbert put this model together.
Hubbert's prediction for U.S. oil production was made in 1956. He had the distinction of being very close to the actual results.
Discoveries lead production. Because it takes 10 or more years to develop an oil field into production, the rate of discoveries is a predictor for future oil availability. The rate of oil discoveries peaked in the early 1960's and new oil field discoveries has been in a decline ever since. If there are little or no new oil field discoveries then ultimately oil production has to decline as the existing fields peter out.
Newt Gingrich's "Drill Here, Drill Now, Pay Less" plan is shown as an example of poppycock solutions being pushed.
Finding or getting to the new oil is not easy or cheap. Offshore oil rigs cost over $1 billion apiece.
Finding big fields is unlikely. Oil company geologists have been all over the planet and their continual quest for new oil still hasn't reversed the decline in oil discoveries.
Even if new fields were to be drilled it takes 10-20 or more years to bring a field online. If we enter a decline in oil production soon, then new fields will only help in 2020 or further into the future.
The U.S. has 20 billion bbl of oil reserves. Total U.S. daily consumption in 2005 was 20.7 million per day, and we import 11.7 per day. That's approx 7 years of supply.
Major crisis due in 2015ish perhaps. 2008+7=2015. The U.S. oil production is going to be declining and the ratio of imports to usage will simply be ever-increasing. As the ratio becomes higher it makes the U.S. economy weaker and weaker, and the U.S. ever more desparate for oil.
But this guys presentation is only one set of figures. The USGS and others have different projections of future oil. They're claiming a peak further out into the future than ASPO projections say.
Another aspect is it isn't just a U.S. problem. Other countries are in on this. In particular the former-3rd-world countries which are industrializing mainly China and India are increasing their ratio of energy use. Globalization of production makes for higher transportation costs, and higher fuel usage. From that viewpoint also, in about 7 years demand for oil will exceed maximum total oil production.
What happens then?
Technosanity #14: Petroleum & Peak Oil 101
Links: http://audio.davidherron.com/technosanity/episode-14-petroleum-101.mp3
Links: http://www.aspo-usa.com/aspousa4/ConfirmedSpeakers.cfm?bid=522
Links: http://www.aspo-usa.org/aspousa4/proceedings/Verosub_Ken_Petro_101_ASPOUSA2008.p...
Technosanity #13: Peter Wells at ASPO-USA 2008
Peter Wells.. Neftex Petroleum Consultants, Ltd
bio: http://www.aspo-usa.org/aspousa4/ConfirmedSpeakers.cfm?bid=510
slides: http://www.aspo-usa.org/aspousa4/proceedings/Wells_Peter_OPEC_ASPOUSA2008.pdf
Oil geologist and other work in the oil industry in the Middle East, former Soviet Union, West Aftrica, etc. Currently working as a consultant with one contract being Toyota. Toyota had studied and internalized Peak Oil long ago, and 6 yrs later developed the Prius.
OPEC countries are the major oil producers. They produce 43% of world oil, and this is growing. They have a dilemna about investing in more production capacity. They are being asked to make more investment but they did so in the 1980's only to see demand dry up. They are reluctant to make more investments which will sit idle.
Venezuela & Iran & Iraq are a bloc of OPEC which want high prices. Many countries, especially middle east, see their oil as a National Heritage which they can leave to their grand-children. If they use it all up doing production at the highest rate possible then their National Heritage will be gone. Hence the middle east countries are likely to limit oil production for this reason.
OPEC exploration success peaked 40 years ago. In general there has been little success with oil exploration for a very very very long time (40 years). The argument is there are no major oil fields left to find.
He showed several charts of all the liquid fuels. The "liquids model" includes all forms of liquid fuels, including liquified natural gas, biofuels, tar sands, etc. Everything but crude oil is a miniscule slice compared to what crude oil supplies. For these other sources to replace crude oil is a huge leap to accomplish.
There was a price floor of $20/bbl which is the amount Saudi Arabia required to run their country. In 2002 the oil prices began to rise. Around that time the 'spare capacity' started peaking (production infrastructure was running full bore). This year more investment in Saudi Arabia infrastructure meant there's now more capacity and the price began to drop.
"Spare Capacity" is the amount of production capacity your infrastructure can do at maximum above what the current production rate is. That is, it's the amount that production can be increased. Too much spare capacity and prices are low, whereas too little spare capacity leads to high oil prices and demand destruction. "Demand destruction" means people being priced out of the market and looking for alternatives.
Components of future crude oil production:- 1 trillion barrels claimed in IHS databases, 445 billion barrels in Tar Sands, unknown further amounts from future exploration and enhanced oil recovery
The USGS has estimates which indicate there are future large discoveries to be made. A big question about the future of oil is the amount of future oil field discoveries. Will there be few discoveries or large discoveries? If there are large discoveries then the oil peak is pushed into the future, but if there are few discoveries then the oil peak is closer at hand.
His organization believes the USGS is incorrect and that there will be few new discoveries and no large new discoveries.
Technosanity #13: Peter Wells at ASPO-USA 2008
Links: http://audio.davidherron.com/technosanity/episode-13-plenary-vbr.mp3
Links: http://www.aspo-usa.org/aspousa4/ConfirmedSpeakers.cfm?bid=510
Links: http://www.aspo-usa.org/aspousa4/proceedings/Wells_Peter_OPEC_ASPOUSA2008.pdf
bio: http://www.aspo-usa.org/aspousa4/ConfirmedSpeakers.cfm?bid=510
slides: http://www.aspo-usa.org/aspousa4/proceedings/Wells_Peter_OPEC_ASPOUSA2008.pdf
Oil geologist and other work in the oil industry in the Middle East, former Soviet Union, West Aftrica, etc. Currently working as a consultant with one contract being Toyota. Toyota had studied and internalized Peak Oil long ago, and 6 yrs later developed the Prius.
OPEC countries are the major oil producers. They produce 43% of world oil, and this is growing. They have a dilemna about investing in more production capacity. They are being asked to make more investment but they did so in the 1980's only to see demand dry up. They are reluctant to make more investments which will sit idle.
Venezuela & Iran & Iraq are a bloc of OPEC which want high prices. Many countries, especially middle east, see their oil as a National Heritage which they can leave to their grand-children. If they use it all up doing production at the highest rate possible then their National Heritage will be gone. Hence the middle east countries are likely to limit oil production for this reason.
OPEC exploration success peaked 40 years ago. In general there has been little success with oil exploration for a very very very long time (40 years). The argument is there are no major oil fields left to find.
He showed several charts of all the liquid fuels. The "liquids model" includes all forms of liquid fuels, including liquified natural gas, biofuels, tar sands, etc. Everything but crude oil is a miniscule slice compared to what crude oil supplies. For these other sources to replace crude oil is a huge leap to accomplish.
There was a price floor of $20/bbl which is the amount Saudi Arabia required to run their country. In 2002 the oil prices began to rise. Around that time the 'spare capacity' started peaking (production infrastructure was running full bore). This year more investment in Saudi Arabia infrastructure meant there's now more capacity and the price began to drop.
"Spare Capacity" is the amount of production capacity your infrastructure can do at maximum above what the current production rate is. That is, it's the amount that production can be increased. Too much spare capacity and prices are low, whereas too little spare capacity leads to high oil prices and demand destruction. "Demand destruction" means people being priced out of the market and looking for alternatives.
Components of future crude oil production:- 1 trillion barrels claimed in IHS databases, 445 billion barrels in Tar Sands, unknown further amounts from future exploration and enhanced oil recovery
The USGS has estimates which indicate there are future large discoveries to be made. A big question about the future of oil is the amount of future oil field discoveries. Will there be few discoveries or large discoveries? If there are large discoveries then the oil peak is pushed into the future, but if there are few discoveries then the oil peak is closer at hand.
His organization believes the USGS is incorrect and that there will be few new discoveries and no large new discoveries.
Technosanity #13: Peter Wells at ASPO-USA 2008
Links: http://audio.davidherron.com/technosanity/episode-13-plenary-vbr.mp3
Links: http://www.aspo-usa.org/aspousa4/ConfirmedSpeakers.cfm?bid=510
Links: http://www.aspo-usa.org/aspousa4/proceedings/Wells_Peter_OPEC_ASPOUSA2008.pdf
Sunday, October 12, 2008
Technosanity #12: Peak Oil and the Media (from Radio Ecoshock)
Republished from http://www.ecoshock.org/2008/08/peak-oil-and-media.html
-- a panel discussion about Peak Oil and its coverage in the Media.
What we can do. Vancouverpeakoil.org presents a panel of 5 journalists:
Rex Weyler, Barbara Jaffe, Charlie Smith, Sara Robinson and Alex Smith.
How to organize, use media, bypass the mainstream.
It is production that has peaked. It doesn't matter if there are trillions of barrels of oil left, what matters is to get that oil and bring it to market. There are only a couple rigs capable of drilling oil in the Arctic and it costs $1billion apiece to build new oil rigs. Somehow tapping Arctic oil would require building new rigs, new oil pipelines, etc, and is there money to do all the required investment? Or even is new oil something we want to invest in, given the negative environmental impact.
Energy Return on Investment (EROI) is another factor.. The peak net EROI occurred 30 years ago. Deposits like the tar sands have an EROI of 1:1 meaning you extract the same energy from the tar sands that you put in. It's not profitable by any measure yet they're committing ecological catastrophes in the name of mining it. And it requires government subsidy to even get what little profit there is.
Price isn't determined, any more, by the old style price/demand equations. Price isn't being set by the world market. Instead it is access. The Iraq war is being fought to establish access. The term is "off-take deals" referring to special deals like "We'll give you $n billion and take everything in sight". The Chinese especially are doing this, rather than doing war. Resources controlled by off-take deals never get to market and the price is not the market price but whatever was negotiated in the deal.
The strength of empires has been determined repeatedly by the energy resources. The most recent was England whose strength came from their coal deposits. When their coal became eclipsed by American coal, they were eclipsed, and again when Americans discovered oil, that doubly eclipsed the British Empire.
We're talking about a finite resource and the math isn't very simple. A great analogy was made to what happens if you repeatedly take food out of a refrigerator. Eventually you run out and go to the store to buy more. In this case the refrigerator is the oil deposits, but there is no store to go to.
Technosanity #12: Peak Oil and the Media (from Radio Ecoshock)
Links: PEAK OIL AND THE MEDIA
Links: http://www.vancouverpeakoil.org/
Links: http://www.thetyee.ca/
Links: http://www.ecoshock.org/
Links: http://www.ecoshock.net/eshock08/ES_080829_Show.mp3
It is production that has peaked. It doesn't matter if there are trillions of barrels of oil left, what matters is to get that oil and bring it to market. There are only a couple rigs capable of drilling oil in the Arctic and it costs $1billion apiece to build new oil rigs. Somehow tapping Arctic oil would require building new rigs, new oil pipelines, etc, and is there money to do all the required investment? Or even is new oil something we want to invest in, given the negative environmental impact.
Energy Return on Investment (EROI) is another factor.. The peak net EROI occurred 30 years ago. Deposits like the tar sands have an EROI of 1:1 meaning you extract the same energy from the tar sands that you put in. It's not profitable by any measure yet they're committing ecological catastrophes in the name of mining it. And it requires government subsidy to even get what little profit there is.
Price isn't determined, any more, by the old style price/demand equations. Price isn't being set by the world market. Instead it is access. The Iraq war is being fought to establish access. The term is "off-take deals" referring to special deals like "We'll give you $n billion and take everything in sight". The Chinese especially are doing this, rather than doing war. Resources controlled by off-take deals never get to market and the price is not the market price but whatever was negotiated in the deal.
The strength of empires has been determined repeatedly by the energy resources. The most recent was England whose strength came from their coal deposits. When their coal became eclipsed by American coal, they were eclipsed, and again when Americans discovered oil, that doubly eclipsed the British Empire.
We're talking about a finite resource and the math isn't very simple. A great analogy was made to what happens if you repeatedly take food out of a refrigerator. Eventually you run out and go to the store to buy more. In this case the refrigerator is the oil deposits, but there is no store to go to.
Technosanity #12: Peak Oil and the Media (from Radio Ecoshock)
Links: PEAK OIL AND THE MEDIA
Links: http://www.vancouverpeakoil.org/
Links: http://www.thetyee.ca/
Links: http://www.ecoshock.org/
Links: http://www.ecoshock.net/eshock08/ES_080829_Show.mp3
Saturday, September 20, 2008
TechnoSanity #11: Normalthink, the way "everybody" behaves
I'm attending the yearly gathering of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and my method of traveling to the conference gave me a word to ponder. Normalthink is the accepted normal pattern of behavior that "everybody" follows without really thinking.
In this case normalthink says "everybody drives" and that is the normalthink way I would have traveled to the conference. It's held in a city 150 miles from my home, the kind of trip where normalthink says "lets hop in the car and go". But it's this kind of normalthink which is making our peak oil situation the danger it is.
When normalthink leads everybody to continue using oil then as population increases the demand for oil increases. But there are a lot of choices which are being made from normalthink, namely the choice that since "everybody drives" that the only way to travel is by car, and that since normalthink says all cars are driven with gasoline that therefore "everybody drives" leads to "everybody uses oil". There are several unexamined questions in this which could be made differently and if made differently would change the situation regarding oil and the peak oil scenario would not be playing out as it is.
Normalthink, the way "everybody" behaves
Links: http://audio.davidherron.com/technosanity/normalthink.mp3
In this case normalthink says "everybody drives" and that is the normalthink way I would have traveled to the conference. It's held in a city 150 miles from my home, the kind of trip where normalthink says "lets hop in the car and go". But it's this kind of normalthink which is making our peak oil situation the danger it is.
When normalthink leads everybody to continue using oil then as population increases the demand for oil increases. But there are a lot of choices which are being made from normalthink, namely the choice that since "everybody drives" that the only way to travel is by car, and that since normalthink says all cars are driven with gasoline that therefore "everybody drives" leads to "everybody uses oil". There are several unexamined questions in this which could be made differently and if made differently would change the situation regarding oil and the peak oil scenario would not be playing out as it is.
Normalthink, the way "everybody" behaves
Links: http://audio.davidherron.com/technosanity/normalthink.mp3
Friday, September 19, 2008
Technosanity #10: Monoculture ramble
Monoculture
is the practice of producing or growing one single crop over a wide
area. The term is also applied in several fields....The dependence on
monoculture crops can lead to large scale failures when the single
genetic variant or cultivar becomes susceptible to a pathogen or when a
change in weather patterns occur. The Great Irish Famine (1845-1849)
was caused by susceptibility of the potato to Phytophthora infestans.
The wine industry in Europe was devastated by susceptibility to
Phylloxera during the late 19th century. Each crop then had to be
replaced by a new cultivar imported from another country that had used a
different genetic variant that was not susceptible to the pathogen. Today's episode takes this idea on a tangent. American society is hooked on specific things which have the nature of monoculture, and the principle example is the use of oil to move our butts around town.
Nature abhors monocultures. Nature abhors them so much that they do not exist in accordance with nature. They would be unknown but for modern man. That from a blog post by Patrick Deneen last April which is very much in the same vein as my early morning ramble. As he says our "modern" culture is woven from monoculture of all kind, from the sparsely few varieties of food we have in the stores to the sparsely few varieties of opinions presented in the corporate controlled media, to the sparsely few choices we have in vehicles, etc etc etc. I can hear the question, "Few varieties of food?" Clearly I must be smoking something strong, right? Well consider how even though the grocery stores are burstingly full of a dizzying array of brands, just how little true variety there is. There may be 20 brands of canned corn products but the corn itself is all pretty much the same plant. That even though there are hundreds of species of corn known to agriculturists, the modern practice of agriculture and food marketing causes there to be very few varieties that make it to the grocery stores and can be bought by people.
What if there is some other kind of global crop infestation which wipes out our food supply because everybody on the planet grows the same food?
Monoculture isn't just about crops and food. It's thinking patterns, it's other kinds of products, it's culture, it's language, etc. What of the shrinking number of languages spoken in the world? What are we as a global society losing with every language which goes extinct? What are we as a global society losing as local accents and idioms are lost to a monoculture of speech promulgated by centralized media talking heads?
A huge danger is the monoculture of transportation technology, fuel for transportation, etc. The fossil oil from which gasoline and diesel is made will run out "soon". If we as a global society do not prepare for the eventual total disruption of oil supply, it will kill this beautiful global culture that has been built the last couple hundred years. Fossil oil and the transportation technology which it enabled allowed the global culture to get to know itself because rapid global transit has allowed us to see how everybody else lives, travel to other places, have a broader horizon of our understanding etc. But the technological choices available to us for travel are strongly limited to one fuel source: fossil oil. And fossil oil is due to run out "soon".
In this episode I end with a great question. The peak oil scenario describes our future, that fossil oil consumption will continue rising until the oil companies are no longer able to increase production. Once they reach the peak in production there is an inevitable decrease in available oil products and our global society will enter a crisis, due to its addiction to oil. There will be a window of opportunity to replace fossil oil as the driving force of our global society. Will we be able to quickly enough field a replacement technology infrastructure to enable global travel for our global society? Our ability to do this, to replace fossil oil driven technology with something else is what will determine whether our global society navigates through the coming crisis, or whether our global society crumbles into oblivion.
This episode is an early morning ramble. I literally had this idea floating in my mind as I woke up one morning, and I went directly to the computer and started recording. The text above does not directly correspond to what I said, but they're pointing in the same direction and covering the same territory. If the episode sounds like it's rambling and tangential, it is because I had literally just woken up. I felt like I was onto a cool idea... well, there's certainly a strong thread of a cool idea.
Technosanity #10: Monoculture ramble
Links: http://audio.davidherron.com/technosanity/e000009.mp3
Links: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monoculture
Links: Monoculture considered harmful
Links: http://patrickdeneen.blogspot.com/2008/04/against-monoculture.html
Links: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qU57-eac9po
Links: Our future does not include an energy monoculture
Nature abhors monocultures. Nature abhors them so much that they do not exist in accordance with nature. They would be unknown but for modern man. That from a blog post by Patrick Deneen last April which is very much in the same vein as my early morning ramble. As he says our "modern" culture is woven from monoculture of all kind, from the sparsely few varieties of food we have in the stores to the sparsely few varieties of opinions presented in the corporate controlled media, to the sparsely few choices we have in vehicles, etc etc etc. I can hear the question, "Few varieties of food?" Clearly I must be smoking something strong, right? Well consider how even though the grocery stores are burstingly full of a dizzying array of brands, just how little true variety there is. There may be 20 brands of canned corn products but the corn itself is all pretty much the same plant. That even though there are hundreds of species of corn known to agriculturists, the modern practice of agriculture and food marketing causes there to be very few varieties that make it to the grocery stores and can be bought by people.
What if there is some other kind of global crop infestation which wipes out our food supply because everybody on the planet grows the same food?
Monoculture isn't just about crops and food. It's thinking patterns, it's other kinds of products, it's culture, it's language, etc. What of the shrinking number of languages spoken in the world? What are we as a global society losing with every language which goes extinct? What are we as a global society losing as local accents and idioms are lost to a monoculture of speech promulgated by centralized media talking heads?
A huge danger is the monoculture of transportation technology, fuel for transportation, etc. The fossil oil from which gasoline and diesel is made will run out "soon". If we as a global society do not prepare for the eventual total disruption of oil supply, it will kill this beautiful global culture that has been built the last couple hundred years. Fossil oil and the transportation technology which it enabled allowed the global culture to get to know itself because rapid global transit has allowed us to see how everybody else lives, travel to other places, have a broader horizon of our understanding etc. But the technological choices available to us for travel are strongly limited to one fuel source: fossil oil. And fossil oil is due to run out "soon".
In this episode I end with a great question. The peak oil scenario describes our future, that fossil oil consumption will continue rising until the oil companies are no longer able to increase production. Once they reach the peak in production there is an inevitable decrease in available oil products and our global society will enter a crisis, due to its addiction to oil. There will be a window of opportunity to replace fossil oil as the driving force of our global society. Will we be able to quickly enough field a replacement technology infrastructure to enable global travel for our global society? Our ability to do this, to replace fossil oil driven technology with something else is what will determine whether our global society navigates through the coming crisis, or whether our global society crumbles into oblivion.
This episode is an early morning ramble. I literally had this idea floating in my mind as I woke up one morning, and I went directly to the computer and started recording. The text above does not directly correspond to what I said, but they're pointing in the same direction and covering the same territory. If the episode sounds like it's rambling and tangential, it is because I had literally just woken up. I felt like I was onto a cool idea... well, there's certainly a strong thread of a cool idea.
Technosanity #10: Monoculture ramble
Links: http://audio.davidherron.com/technosanity/e000009.mp3
Links: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monoculture
Links: Monoculture considered harmful
Links: http://patrickdeneen.blogspot.com/2008/04/against-monoculture.html
Links: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qU57-eac9po
Links: Our future does not include an energy monoculture
Saturday, September 6, 2008
Technosanity #9: 36th Annual Silicon Valley EV Rally
The Silicon Valley EAA Chapter has done a yearly rally for, now, 36 years and I have been attending for 10 years or so. Back the major car companies showed up, the most impressive being GM's presence with the EV1. They'd arrive with one or two tractor trailer
trucks with 4 EV1's and make them available for test rides. I got to
test drive the EV1 a couple times due to this, and other car companies
showed up back then as well. Needless to say, since GM axe murdered the
EV1, that the major car companies did not show up today. But there
were still a lot of people attending anyway.
Car companies in attendance included:-
AC propulsion: http://www.acpropulsion.com/
Green E Motors: http://greenemotor.com (since defunct)
Green Rides: http://greenrides.com (since defunct) -- BTW in the podcast episode I only mentioned the EVT4000. They also had on display a kitcar conversion they're getting ready to sell. It's a kitcar version of the old Spyder sports car, and converted to electric drive they're claim it will cost $50,000.
Electric Bikes: http://electric-bikes.com
Green Vehicles: http://greenvehicles.com (since defunct) -- I wrote a piece about their Triac on V is for Voltage
Electric Motorsport: http://electricmotorsport.com -- I wrote a piece about their GPR-S motorcycle on V is for Voltage
Technosanity #9: 36th Annual Silicon Valley EV Rally
Links: http://audio.davidherron.com/technosanity/e000008.mp3
Car companies in attendance included:-
AC propulsion: http://www.acpropulsion.com/
Green E Motors: http://greenemotor.com (since defunct)
Green Rides: http://greenrides.com (since defunct) -- BTW in the podcast episode I only mentioned the EVT4000. They also had on display a kitcar conversion they're getting ready to sell. It's a kitcar version of the old Spyder sports car, and converted to electric drive they're claim it will cost $50,000.
Electric Bikes: http://electric-bikes.com
Green Vehicles: http://greenvehicles.com (since defunct) -- I wrote a piece about their Triac on V is for Voltage
Electric Motorsport: http://electricmotorsport.com -- I wrote a piece about their GPR-S motorcycle on V is for Voltage
Technosanity #9: 36th Annual Silicon Valley EV Rally
Links: http://audio.davidherron.com/technosanity/e000008.mp3
Tuesday, September 2, 2008
Technosanity #8: Growing popularity of high miles/gallon motorcycles
Parking cars, climbing on scooters
You may have noticed more scooters or motorcycles on the road this summer. They are small, usually very fuel efficient and cheaper to operate than a car. Many customers say they are giving scooters or motorbikes a try because of the great fuel mileage they get.
Electric scooters designed for commuters
The Vectrix is an electric maxi-scooter which recently came on the market. It has great cargo capacity, goes fast enough to travel on highway's, has enough range to handle typical commutes with ease, and zero emissions. The San Rafael dealership has sold 23 Vectrix scooters since they became available in May.
Rising Fuel Prices and Recession Fears Spur Nationwide Interest in Motorcycles and Scooters
A July 21, 2008 article in PowerSports Business reported that first half scooter sales increased by sixty five percent, validating a consumer trend towards more fuel efficient transportation. "The era of smaller, more fuel efficient vehicles is upon us," commented Anthony Havens, Sparta's CEO. "Until recently, motorcycles and scooters were considered the choice of enthusiasts, or people who were just interested in fun and recreation. But, with gas prices dramatically rising, we believe a growing number of consumers will be interested in buying or leasing motorcycles and scooters for extremely practical reasons. With most motorcycles averaging from 40 to 60 miles per gallon and many scooters averaging up to 70 or more miles per gallon, a lot of people are now interested in acquiring these vehicles for commuting to and from work and for local and mid-distance transportation."
70 Extra Parking Spaces for Growing Biker Population
In New Zealand they're having enough growth of motorcycle riders to require more parking.
US drivers log 12bn fewer miles in June
In the U.S. the roads are less crowded than ever, perhaps due to this 'Staycation' effect.
‘Auto rickshaw’ gives Waukesha man cheap, fun ride
3 wheels and 70 miles per gallon
In other countries (India, China, etc) three wheeled cycle-car's are pretty popular. In India the auto-rickshaw's are the ubiquitous taxi service available any time of day or night. They began life as scooters but with a bench seat in the back and a cover to help keep out rain. Some are importing these into the U.S.
Aptera Typ-1 pushes design and efficiency to new ground
The Aptera looks for all the world to be a wingless airplane. It is an electric three wheeled vehicle whose aerodynamic styling creates the airplane illusion. It gets a 200 mile range per charge, holds two people plus cargo. It is due to begin delivery to paying customers in late 2008 and they have well over 2000 people pledged to buy vehicles.
Number of motorcycle deaths increasing in Washington
Motorcycle safety is everyone’s responsibility
Motorcycle Safety Foundation -- http://www.msf-usa.org/ -- Get trained and licensed. -- Wear personal protective gear — Ride unimpaired by alcohol or other drugs. -- Ride within your own skill limits. -- Be a lifelong learner by taking refresher rider courses.
National Highway and Transportation Administration -- http://www.nhtsa.gov/ -- motorcycle fatalities 2,116 in 1997 to more than 4,800 in 2006 -- Motorcycle registration has jumped 63 percent between 1997 and 2005.
Motorcyclists Learn Safety First
Motorcycle Safety Foundation Calls for Commencement of Motorcycle Crash Causation Study
Death by Motorcycle: Rates Continue to Rise
Motorists push for motorcycle lanes
Can Rising Motorcycle Fatalities Be Blamed on a Lack of Helmet Laws?
Gas prices drive increase in motorcycle injuries
Motorcycle riding is inherently dangerous, the motorcyclist is less visible, and in case of collision there is no protection. What gives a motorcyclist safety is to avoid crashes, and you do this through practicing safe operation, through being aware of the traffic, planning ahead what actions to take, etc.
In case of collision wearing safety gear reduces the extent of injuries. Yet there have been a decrease in U.S. states requiring motorcyclists to wear helmets. Crazy.
What I took from the motorcycle safety training is the value of awareness. They teach an awareness practice you can use while riding a motorcycle. It involves constant scanning the road ahead of you for potential dangers and preemptively planning responses in case of problem. A key thing is to look far enough ahead to account for your reaction time. That is, how far down the road will you travel in 4 seconds? It's because 4 seconds (or so) is the typical reaction time, and if an emergency comes up you'll have 4 seconds before your reaction kicks in. Can you do it? Only if you pay attention to where you're going and what you're doing (thank you Yoda).
But an interesting side learning for me from this has to do with improved safety in car driving. Namely... I know that I'm not the only one who does this, that essentially everybody is doing this: I get in my car and somehow I get to my destination and don't remember how I got there and my mind wandered the whole time. HOW SAFE CAN THAT BE?
That's not safe at all, is it? Hm? Be honest now. That's a totally dangerous thing, right? Somehow it works most of the time and perhaps we're being lulled by how often it works. But let's be real ... this is dangerous.
Perhaps everybody should be required to learn to ride a motorcycle and take the motorcycle safety training ...?
Anyway, back to motorcycles
Motorcycles are fuel efficient... they require less resources to build the motorcycles.. and they take less land.
That last is a little hard to see and I want to make sure it's understood. Ponder if you will the typical city. Wide highways, perhaps 8 lanes each way, lots of parking lots, a garage at each house, lots of city streets, etc. Shopping centers are required to size their parking lots based on the maximal shopping time (Christmas) meaning the lots are only half full most of the time. Same for the roads, if a highway becomes clogged during rush hour the citizens will bitch and moan to the highway administration until the highway people build more roads. But the rush hour is, uh, an hour in the morning and an hour in the evening meaning they're sizing the roads to handle the worst part of the day and the other 22 hours of the day the roads are not so clogged.
In short there's a lot of land tied up with storing cars while they're parked, and space for them to drive around.
Because motorcycles are smaller that means you can pack more motorcycles per unit of road and park more motorcycles per unit of parking lot. Motorcycles and bicycles represent a better land use deal than do cars. An even better land use arrangement is mass transit systems.
Technosanity #8: Growing popularity of high miles/gallon motorcycles
Sunday, August 31, 2008
Technosanity #7: Solfest 2008
I recorded this a couple weeks ago during the Solfest.
Solfest is a yearly gathering sponsored by Real Goods and the Solar
Living Institute, it focuses on solar energy, off the grid living,
appropriate technology, and much more. This was my first time attending
the Solfest and I had a great time. The episode is pretty long but it
covers a lot of things.
SolFest http://www.solarliving.org/display.asp?catid=17 -- SolFest is the world’s premier two-day celebration of renewable energy and sustainable living. Since SolFest was born in 1996 over 100,000 people have learned how to change the world while having fun. Each summer SolFest transforms the rural hamlet of Hopland, California, into the global epicenter of green living.
Solar Living Institute http://www.solarliving.org/ -- "mission is to promote sustainable living through inspirational environmental education. The Institute provides practical, education by example and hands-on workshops on renewable energy, green building, sustainable living, permaculture, organic gardening and alternative, environmental, construction methods."
Real Goods http://www.realgoods.com/
I made a few blog posts about the Solfest 2008 as well as found some interesting companies and other web resources.
Green Career Conference -- http://www.solarliving.org/store/product.asp?catid=13&pid=1652 -- http://solarliving.org/store/product.asp?catid=13&pid=1913 -- -- http://old.7gen.com/website/green-career/24878-green-career-conference -- Want a job in the 'Green Economy'? This is the place to go.
West Coast Green -- http://westcoastgreen.com/ -- A green building and technology conference scheduled to occur in San Jose, CA in September 2008
Climate Code Red -- http://www.7gen.com/website/climate-change/24879-climate-code-red -- A book making the case that our climate is at an utmost emergency crisis state. CODE RED EVERYBODY DROP WHAT YOU'RE DOING!
Grid Beam -- http://www.7gen.com/website/grid-beam/24872-grid-beam -- It's a very interesting idea for rapidly constructing things like furniture, shelves, beds, electric cars, or nearly anything else. Sol Man -- http://www.7gen.com/website/solar-electricity/24860-sol-man -- offered a very interesting portable solar power station, built using grid beam technology.
Avalon Springs -- http://www.7gen.com/website/intentional-community/24863-avalon-springs -- A new intentional community just started in Sonoma County.
David Blume, Alcohol Can be a Gas, at SolFest 2008 -- http://www.7gen.com/blog/20080829/24851-ethanol -- An amazingly interesting talk about using Ethanol as a fuel to power cars, airplanes, etc. The guy was phenomenal, had a lot of eye-opening things to say about the subject, to show how ethanol production isn't about food diversion but the food diversion story is more of an oil industry scam, etc. He's written a book, Alcohol Can Be a Gas!: Fueling an Ethanol Revolution for the 21st Century that goes into this deeply.
She is not a professional journalist but came into being a talk show host & author from her desire to tell the story of green living. She got her start through finding a newly started radio station on which she could buy radio time. Over some time she'd built up a body of work that allowed her to build her career to a bigger scale. Now she podcasts, appears on a couple radio stations, writes articles for magazines, etc.
Management has specific goals -- to get advertising because it's advertising that pays the bills and satisfies managements duty to the shareholders. Over the history of mass media they've learned that "Tension" sells advertising. This is why journalists are always looking for the controversy and it seems that they sometimes create controversy where it doesn't exist.
If you're in the media industry let's be real, you're really in the advertising industry. Essentially all media is paid for by advertising.
It's a business and if it's going to be a sustainable business then you need to earn a living at it. She offered several ways to earn a living
Links: http://audio.davidherron.com/technosanity/e000006.mp3
SolFest http://www.solarliving.org/display.asp?catid=17 -- SolFest is the world’s premier two-day celebration of renewable energy and sustainable living. Since SolFest was born in 1996 over 100,000 people have learned how to change the world while having fun. Each summer SolFest transforms the rural hamlet of Hopland, California, into the global epicenter of green living.
Solar Living Institute http://www.solarliving.org/ -- "mission is to promote sustainable living through inspirational environmental education. The Institute provides practical, education by example and hands-on workshops on renewable energy, green building, sustainable living, permaculture, organic gardening and alternative, environmental, construction methods."
Real Goods http://www.realgoods.com/
I made a few blog posts about the Solfest 2008 as well as found some interesting companies and other web resources.
Green Career Conference -- http://www.solarliving.org/store/product.asp?catid=13&pid=1652 -- http://solarliving.org/store/product.asp?catid=13&pid=1913 -- -- http://old.7gen.com/website/green-career/24878-green-career-conference -- Want a job in the 'Green Economy'? This is the place to go.
West Coast Green -- http://westcoastgreen.com/ -- A green building and technology conference scheduled to occur in San Jose, CA in September 2008
Climate Code Red -- http://www.7gen.com/website/climate-change/24879-climate-code-red -- A book making the case that our climate is at an utmost emergency crisis state. CODE RED EVERYBODY DROP WHAT YOU'RE DOING!
Grid Beam -- http://www.7gen.com/website/grid-beam/24872-grid-beam -- It's a very interesting idea for rapidly constructing things like furniture, shelves, beds, electric cars, or nearly anything else. Sol Man -- http://www.7gen.com/website/solar-electricity/24860-sol-man -- offered a very interesting portable solar power station, built using grid beam technology.
Avalon Springs -- http://www.7gen.com/website/intentional-community/24863-avalon-springs -- A new intentional community just started in Sonoma County.
David Blume, Alcohol Can be a Gas, at SolFest 2008 -- http://www.7gen.com/blog/20080829/24851-ethanol -- An amazingly interesting talk about using Ethanol as a fuel to power cars, airplanes, etc. The guy was phenomenal, had a lot of eye-opening things to say about the subject, to show how ethanol production isn't about food diversion but the food diversion story is more of an oil industry scam, etc. He's written a book, Alcohol Can Be a Gas!: Fueling an Ethanol Revolution for the 21st Century that goes into this deeply.
Greening Mass Media
A talk presenting thoughts on bringing 'green' thinking, ideas, perspective, etc to mass media. The green perspective is a niche viewpoint and it's easy for niche ideas to have a hard time being widespread in mainstream society. But there is a need for this viewpoint to be more widely accepted and enter mainstream society, and one way to do this is by having the green perspective regularly presented in the mass media. The talk was presented by Deborah LindseyShe is not a professional journalist but came into being a talk show host & author from her desire to tell the story of green living. She got her start through finding a newly started radio station on which she could buy radio time. Over some time she'd built up a body of work that allowed her to build her career to a bigger scale. Now she podcasts, appears on a couple radio stations, writes articles for magazines, etc.
Management has specific goals -- to get advertising because it's advertising that pays the bills and satisfies managements duty to the shareholders. Over the history of mass media they've learned that "Tension" sells advertising. This is why journalists are always looking for the controversy and it seems that they sometimes create controversy where it doesn't exist.
If you're in the media industry let's be real, you're really in the advertising industry. Essentially all media is paid for by advertising.
It's a business and if it's going to be a sustainable business then you need to earn a living at it. She offered several ways to earn a living
- Being hired by a corporation
- Sponsorship or Endorsements
- Independent, and selling advertising
- Membership access to special content
- Commissioned articles (by the word)
- Grants
Links: http://audio.davidherron.com/technosanity/e000006.mp3
Friday, July 25, 2008
Technosanity #6: Hazards of U.S. nuclear power plants, part 2 (ifyoulovethisplanet.org)
Rebroadcast from ifyoulovethisplanet.org:- Paul Gunter, director of the Reactor Oversight Project at Beyond Nuclear and former director of the Reactor Watchdog Project at Nuclear Information and Resource Service,
illuminates the operation, disrepair and vulnerability of U.S. nuclear
power plants. This episode also includes an excerpt from the 1983
Oscar-winning documentary, If You Love This Planet, which features Dr.
Caldicott giving a lecture about the risks and consequences of nuclear
war.
Hazards of U.S. nuclear power plants, part 2
Hazards of U.S. nuclear power plants, part 2
Technosanity #5: Hazards of U.S. nuclear power plants, part 1 (ifyoulovethisplanet.org)
Rebroadcast from ifyoulovethisplanet.org:- David Lochbaum,
Director of the Nuclear Safety Project for the Union of Concerned
Scientists, about the public health dangers of the 104 aging nuclear
power plants in the United States. Hear about near-melt-downs, how
terrorists could easily crash planes into the planes or sabotage them
from the inside, and how the Nuclear Regulatory Commission fails to
ensure community safety. Also includes a short excerpt of a lecture by
Dr. Caldicott about the Nuclear Age from If You Love This Planet (1983
Academy Award-winning documentary) with narration from U.S. nuclear
propaganda films.
This is the first in a series of broadcasts from Dr. Helen Caldicott. As they say, it is imperative that this show reach a large audience, not just in the U.S. but worldwide.
Hazards of U.S. nuclear power plants, part 1
Links: Hazards of U.S. nuclear power plants, part 1 - Audio
Links: Nuclear Safety Project for the Union of Concerned Scientists
Links: If You Love This Planet (1983 Academy Award-winning documentary)
Links: http://ifyoulovethisplanet.org/
This is the first in a series of broadcasts from Dr. Helen Caldicott. As they say, it is imperative that this show reach a large audience, not just in the U.S. but worldwide.
Hazards of U.S. nuclear power plants, part 1
Links: Hazards of U.S. nuclear power plants, part 1 - Audio
Links: Nuclear Safety Project for the Union of Concerned Scientists
Links: If You Love This Planet (1983 Academy Award-winning documentary)
Links: http://ifyoulovethisplanet.org/
Monday, June 23, 2008
Technosanity #4: Review: A Crude Awakening
This
is a very deeply interesting documentary about oil, oil supplies, the
peak oil phenomenon, and the coming looming disasters which await us.
The documentary is not "balanced" in that they gave no voice to the
other points of view, but I suppose they think those other points of
view are so far out of truth to not be worth addressing.
It starts with some assertions of truth: Oil is the Blood of the Dinosaurs, Oil is the Bloodstream of the Global Economy, Oil is the Blood of the Earth
Our arrangements of using Oil is making ourselves dependent on unstable regimes in nasty parts of the world. This isn't covered in the documentary, but I wonder how much of that instability is due to geopolitical machinations launched by the U.S. to secure the supply of oil. In any case it's obvious from the daily news that the middle east is unstable, and this is where our oil is coming from.
Assertion: It's important (to some) to keep us dependent on oil for as long as possible.
It would be in the business interests of the oil companies to keep the world dependent on oil. Clearly if the world continued its dependence on oil, the world will continue to ship money to the oil companies.
Most people have no inkling of the problem we're facing. The looming crisis includes unemployment, bankruptcy, starvation.. all this is the normal behavior of a collapsed society.
Assertion by Colin Campbell: The bulk of the worlds oil was formed in two periods of extreme global warming, 90 million years ago, and 150 million years ago.
If this is correct it makes oil a one time resource which will "never" be recreated on this planet. I'm a little surprised and will need to double check this assertion by Dr. Campbell. I always thought there was a continuing process of creating new oil, it's just that the planet takes a long time to do the process.
The work value of oil is phenomenal. Scientists can equate units of human labor to the energy, and the energy content of $1 worth of oil contains the energy equivalent to 25,000 hours of human labor. In other words the drive to my job, 10 miles, uses energy equivalent to 40,000 hours of human labor. But I know from personal experience I can ride a bicycle for that same distance, it takes me 45 minutes to ride, so there's a huge wastage of energy (40,000 hours of human labor to drive my car versus the 45 minutes of human labor it takes me to ride my bicycle).
Assertion: "Oil is our God" and that whatever religion we profess to, what we really worship is oil. Eh? What do they mean by "worship"?
70% of oil is used for transportation fuel
98% of transportation energy comes from oil
Constructing products like cars or computers or food, all these things by modern production methods require more weight in oil to produce the thingy than the thingy itself weighs. In Agriculture, for example, it's widespread to use petroleum based fertilizer. Oil makes plastics, insecticides, cosmetics and more.
"They're not making a lot of dinosaurs any more"
"Oil is a magnet for war. Oil starts wars." This speaker goes on to claim the conflict in Darfur is really about oil. There are oil supplies in southern Sudan, recently found. The Sudanese government (based in the north) wants to control the oil, and are therefore ethnically cleansing southern Sudan so the northern Sudanese can control the oil.
However this "Oil starts all wars" is a strange short-sighted statement. What about the wars which begun before Oil was discovered and brought into use by humans? There were many wars fought before the age of Oil, and clearly those wars were not fought over oil resources. However it's ominous that she claims World War I was really about oil (??Was it??). Many events in World War II were affected clearly by oil supplies, especially the German attack into Russia so that Germany could gain control of the Baku oil fields.
The first war purely about Oil was the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait. This was absolutely and fundamentally about a dispute over an oil field.
In the more recent U.S. stupid illegal invasion of Iraq, the U.S. military did not secure the WMD areas. Supposedly the war was to control WMD's, so why didn't they secure Iraq's military depots? By not securing Iraq's depots the arms and other military supplies in there instead were looted and were made available to the insurgents, who have been blowing up U.S. troops ever since. Anyway, instead of securing the WMD depots the U.S. military secured the oil fields. Instead of securing the museums in Baghdad, the museums which contained the original records of human civilization, the museums which contained the cuniform tablets that are the earliest form of writing, instead of securing the museums which were looted, the U.S. military secured the oil ministry.
We're "Always just a drill bit away from a major new discovery" but it's been a very long time since the last significant discovery.
Extracting oil from tar sands and other heavy deposits, it's technically possible however it requires more energy to do so than you get from the resulting oil. The Fischer-Tropsch process was invented by German scientists before World War II and is how the Germans were able to fuel their war machine while not having a supply of oil. They converted coal into oil using this process.
Use of this process is only feasible as a last resort, because it's so expensive to do.
"Sustainable peak supply" -- what does this phrase mean?
They assert that oil allowed world human population to explode. At time of christ, 300mil, by 1700's it'd doubled to 600mil. But as soon as oil was discovered the population exploded to the 6billion it is now. They're saying population increase came as a direct result of better energy supplies. Maybe so, but weren't there other effects? Better medicine? Also better food supplies, though better food is due to better oil supply.
Richard M. Nixon: If our energy resources are sensibly developed they can provide for us for centuries to come
There's a belief many have had that oil is limitless and will always be cheap. Businesses have written into their assumptions that oil will continue being supplied as it is today. Again most people are clueless as to what's about to happen.
A 30-40-50 mile commute only makes sense when there's cheap oil. In the U.S. we've reconstructed the cities to make for 30+ mile commutes, with people driving everywhere, the cities are organized for the convenience of drivers, and there is resulting very little mass transit. This is short sighted thinking which led us to suburbanize U.S. cities under the belief that there would always be cheap oil and gas.
The U.S. evolved our cities for cars. The end of cheap oil means we'll have to rebuild our cities from scratch to a denser style. Perhaps.
e.g. riding bicycle's would be the kind of adaptation people will have to make. But most people are unwilling to ride bicycles for any serious amount of riding.
There are two options: a) militarize the taking of oil by force, b) prepare properly for the coming end of cheap oil
Technology can come to the rescue. Natural resources can be exhausted, but human ingenuity is inexhaustible.
Projections of current trends in energy demand say the human population will require 14 terawatts of energy in 2050. This is tremendous. It would require thousands of new nuclear plants (for example) and by doing this with nuclear power would mean the uranium supplies would reach their peak uranium production very quickly.
Living in the style to which we have become accustomed is not sustainable. It is going to create for us a crisis. How will we get through this?
Technosanity #4: Review: A Crude Awakening
Links: http://audio.davidherron.com/technosanity/e000004.mp3
Links: Peak Oil Links
It starts with some assertions of truth: Oil is the Blood of the Dinosaurs, Oil is the Bloodstream of the Global Economy, Oil is the Blood of the Earth
Our arrangements of using Oil is making ourselves dependent on unstable regimes in nasty parts of the world. This isn't covered in the documentary, but I wonder how much of that instability is due to geopolitical machinations launched by the U.S. to secure the supply of oil. In any case it's obvious from the daily news that the middle east is unstable, and this is where our oil is coming from.
Assertion: It's important (to some) to keep us dependent on oil for as long as possible.
It would be in the business interests of the oil companies to keep the world dependent on oil. Clearly if the world continued its dependence on oil, the world will continue to ship money to the oil companies.
Most people have no inkling of the problem we're facing. The looming crisis includes unemployment, bankruptcy, starvation.. all this is the normal behavior of a collapsed society.
Assertion by Colin Campbell: The bulk of the worlds oil was formed in two periods of extreme global warming, 90 million years ago, and 150 million years ago.
If this is correct it makes oil a one time resource which will "never" be recreated on this planet. I'm a little surprised and will need to double check this assertion by Dr. Campbell. I always thought there was a continuing process of creating new oil, it's just that the planet takes a long time to do the process.
The work value of oil is phenomenal. Scientists can equate units of human labor to the energy, and the energy content of $1 worth of oil contains the energy equivalent to 25,000 hours of human labor. In other words the drive to my job, 10 miles, uses energy equivalent to 40,000 hours of human labor. But I know from personal experience I can ride a bicycle for that same distance, it takes me 45 minutes to ride, so there's a huge wastage of energy (40,000 hours of human labor to drive my car versus the 45 minutes of human labor it takes me to ride my bicycle).
Assertion: "Oil is our God" and that whatever religion we profess to, what we really worship is oil. Eh? What do they mean by "worship"?
70% of oil is used for transportation fuel
98% of transportation energy comes from oil
Constructing products like cars or computers or food, all these things by modern production methods require more weight in oil to produce the thingy than the thingy itself weighs. In Agriculture, for example, it's widespread to use petroleum based fertilizer. Oil makes plastics, insecticides, cosmetics and more.
"They're not making a lot of dinosaurs any more"
"Oil is a magnet for war. Oil starts wars." This speaker goes on to claim the conflict in Darfur is really about oil. There are oil supplies in southern Sudan, recently found. The Sudanese government (based in the north) wants to control the oil, and are therefore ethnically cleansing southern Sudan so the northern Sudanese can control the oil.
However this "Oil starts all wars" is a strange short-sighted statement. What about the wars which begun before Oil was discovered and brought into use by humans? There were many wars fought before the age of Oil, and clearly those wars were not fought over oil resources. However it's ominous that she claims World War I was really about oil (??Was it??). Many events in World War II were affected clearly by oil supplies, especially the German attack into Russia so that Germany could gain control of the Baku oil fields.
The first war purely about Oil was the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait. This was absolutely and fundamentally about a dispute over an oil field.
In the more recent U.S. stupid illegal invasion of Iraq, the U.S. military did not secure the WMD areas. Supposedly the war was to control WMD's, so why didn't they secure Iraq's military depots? By not securing Iraq's depots the arms and other military supplies in there instead were looted and were made available to the insurgents, who have been blowing up U.S. troops ever since. Anyway, instead of securing the WMD depots the U.S. military secured the oil fields. Instead of securing the museums in Baghdad, the museums which contained the original records of human civilization, the museums which contained the cuniform tablets that are the earliest form of writing, instead of securing the museums which were looted, the U.S. military secured the oil ministry.
We're "Always just a drill bit away from a major new discovery" but it's been a very long time since the last significant discovery.
Extracting oil from tar sands and other heavy deposits, it's technically possible however it requires more energy to do so than you get from the resulting oil. The Fischer-Tropsch process was invented by German scientists before World War II and is how the Germans were able to fuel their war machine while not having a supply of oil. They converted coal into oil using this process.
Use of this process is only feasible as a last resort, because it's so expensive to do.
"Sustainable peak supply" -- what does this phrase mean?
They assert that oil allowed world human population to explode. At time of christ, 300mil, by 1700's it'd doubled to 600mil. But as soon as oil was discovered the population exploded to the 6billion it is now. They're saying population increase came as a direct result of better energy supplies. Maybe so, but weren't there other effects? Better medicine? Also better food supplies, though better food is due to better oil supply.
Richard M. Nixon: If our energy resources are sensibly developed they can provide for us for centuries to come
There's a belief many have had that oil is limitless and will always be cheap. Businesses have written into their assumptions that oil will continue being supplied as it is today. Again most people are clueless as to what's about to happen.
A 30-40-50 mile commute only makes sense when there's cheap oil. In the U.S. we've reconstructed the cities to make for 30+ mile commutes, with people driving everywhere, the cities are organized for the convenience of drivers, and there is resulting very little mass transit. This is short sighted thinking which led us to suburbanize U.S. cities under the belief that there would always be cheap oil and gas.
The U.S. evolved our cities for cars. The end of cheap oil means we'll have to rebuild our cities from scratch to a denser style. Perhaps.
e.g. riding bicycle's would be the kind of adaptation people will have to make. But most people are unwilling to ride bicycles for any serious amount of riding.
There are two options: a) militarize the taking of oil by force, b) prepare properly for the coming end of cheap oil
Technology can come to the rescue. Natural resources can be exhausted, but human ingenuity is inexhaustible.
Projections of current trends in energy demand say the human population will require 14 terawatts of energy in 2050. This is tremendous. It would require thousands of new nuclear plants (for example) and by doing this with nuclear power would mean the uranium supplies would reach their peak uranium production very quickly.
Living in the style to which we have become accustomed is not sustainable. It is going to create for us a crisis. How will we get through this?
Technosanity #4: Review: A Crude Awakening
Links: http://audio.davidherron.com/technosanity/e000004.mp3
Links: Peak Oil Links
Sunday, June 22, 2008
Technosanity #3: Peak Oil
Today I want to talk about the Peak Oil situation and do an overview of some of the current news related to this.
Let's start with a quick primer on what this is.
Adapted from: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil
http://www.7gen.com/website/peak-oil/23988-peak-oil
Peak oil is the point in time when the maximum rate of petroleum production is reached. The peak oil occurs at every level, for each oil field, for each country, and for the global production. After the peak oil point is reached, the rate of production enters its terminal decline. If global consumption is not mitigated before the peak, an energy crisis may develop because the availability of conventional oil will drop and prices will rise, perhaps dramatically. M. King Hubbert first used the theory in 1956 to accurately predict that United States oil production would peak between 1965 and 1970. His model, now called Hubbert peak theory, has since been used to predict the peak petroleum production of many other countries, and has also proved useful in other limited-resource production-domains. According to the Hubbert model, the production rate of a limited resource will follow a roughly symmetrical bell-shaped curve based on the limits of exploitability and market pressures.
The same pattern happens for other limited resources. There will be a copper peak, a coal peak, a natural gas peak, a fish peak, etc. In each case there is an increasing demand for a resource, and a fixed maximum capacity to deliver that demand, and once the capacity is reached it damages the resource such that it can no longer produce as it did before.
Oil is the most critical resource for our societies existence and it is with oil that this Peak Resource phenomenon was discovered.
Oil is the key to transportation. Current transportation technologies generally require liquid fuels, and society has chosen that the only way to get liquid fuels is to use fossil oil. The direct result of tight oil supplies will be expensive transportation, and that will contribute to several secondary results to be covered later.
The ever-increasing demand for oil partly occurs as a natural byproduct of rising population. Each person who exists is responsible for consuming resources, so of course the more people there are the more resources which are used. Another cause is a shift from manual technologies like bicycles or horse drawn carts to mechanized technologies like cars and trucks. Some countries, especially India and China, are industrializing and are causing an increased rate of demand. As countries industrialize the amount of resources consumed per person raises as well.
Peak Oil
http://www.7gen.com/article-summary/peak-oil/23991-peak-oil
http://www.cbc.ca/news/background/oil/peak-oil.html
An interview with the authors of Transport Revolutions: Moving People and Freight Without Oil they suggest the U.S. might become so desperate for oil they would invade Canada to get its oil. Maybe the NAFTA is at least partly due to the need to have ready access to Canadian oil.
"The likely outcome of not dealing with this issue is not an environmental catastrophe. It's an economic and social catastrophe that may leave us unable to deal with the environmental catastrophe," Richard Gilbert said in an interview. The effects brought by oil in our society are so critical and fundamental to how we live, that without cheap oil we face starvation, riots, collapsed economies, more wars, and more.
The gushers are gone - "It's the end of the Beverly Hillbillies oil. The kind of oil that you stick a hole in the ground, and it starts squirting a gusher out under its own power." - All the big discoveries have already been made. There are two peaks in oil supply, the first peak is the peak in the rate of discovery of oil, and the second peak is the peak of oil production. The peak of the discovery rate has to precede the peak of production, and the peak of oil discovery is long past.
There's more in this article but we're focused on understanding peak oil here.
World Energy Outlook
http://www.7gen.com/website/government-and-environment/23994-world-energy-outlook
World Energy Outlook 2007 Edition
http://www.7gen.com/website/energy-policy/23996-world-energy-outlook-2007-edition
As Dr. Fatih Birol, Chief Economist of the International Energy Agency, said in testimony to Congress in January 2007: "The world is facing twin energy-related threats: that of not having adequate and secure supplies of energy at affordable prices and that of environmental harm caused by its use. " Not only is the supply threatened, the use of fossil fuels is threatening us all from environmental harm. The burning of fossil fuels releases poisons which directly cause a wide range of diseases. The burning of fossil fuels release greenhouse gasses which are directly causing climate change to be worse. Purchasing fossil fuels results in large capital flows into the Middle East.
"Oil supply is increasingly dominated by a small number of major producers, most of them in the Middle East" which then connects to a variety of global geopolitical manipulations. The oil industry needs to do massive investment in developing oil fields and infrastructure, a total of $4.3 trillion dollars between 2005-2030. However it is uncertain whether the key Middle East countries will actually do so, and it's possible they will deliberately keep investment lower than predicted. Why should they increase production when keeping production low keeps the price high? Or it's possible that a credit crunch might prevent producers from expanding capacity due to a lack of money to pay for the investments.
The Shape of Oil to Come
http://www.7gen.com/article-summary/peak-oil/23980-shape-oil-come
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/3060
There are approximately two thoughts to how the peak oil phenomena plays out. The "sharp peak" model says production reaches a peak and rapidly declines. Nobody who has studied this carefully says we will "run out", instead the debate is in how quick is the decline. There are those who think production will, instead, "plateau" for a long time for one reason or another.
Oil megaprojects
http://www.7gen.com/website/oil-industry/23982-oil-megaprojects
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_megaprojects
On Wikipedia the Oil Megaprojects page tracks the known huge oil projects. It's a useful resource to look at and ponder.
The rise of the new energy world order
http://atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/JD17Dj04.html
http://www.7gen.com/article-summary/peak-energy/24136-rise-new-energy-world-order
The world energy crisis is upon us. Dwindling supply and rising demand leads to a simple economics lesson, rising cost. The old equation was cheap energy lead to untold wealth. The new equation is gonna lead to a totally different world power structure.
Technosanity #3: Peak Oil
Links: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil
Links: http://www.cbc.ca/news/background/oil/peak-oil.html
Links: http://www.theoildrum.com/node/3060
Links: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_megaprojects
Links: http://atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/JD17Dj04.html
Links: http://audio.davidherron.com/technosanity/e000003.mp3
Let's start with a quick primer on what this is.
Adapted from: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil
http://www.7gen.com/website/peak-oil/23988-peak-oil
Peak oil is the point in time when the maximum rate of petroleum production is reached. The peak oil occurs at every level, for each oil field, for each country, and for the global production. After the peak oil point is reached, the rate of production enters its terminal decline. If global consumption is not mitigated before the peak, an energy crisis may develop because the availability of conventional oil will drop and prices will rise, perhaps dramatically. M. King Hubbert first used the theory in 1956 to accurately predict that United States oil production would peak between 1965 and 1970. His model, now called Hubbert peak theory, has since been used to predict the peak petroleum production of many other countries, and has also proved useful in other limited-resource production-domains. According to the Hubbert model, the production rate of a limited resource will follow a roughly symmetrical bell-shaped curve based on the limits of exploitability and market pressures.
The same pattern happens for other limited resources. There will be a copper peak, a coal peak, a natural gas peak, a fish peak, etc. In each case there is an increasing demand for a resource, and a fixed maximum capacity to deliver that demand, and once the capacity is reached it damages the resource such that it can no longer produce as it did before.
Oil is the most critical resource for our societies existence and it is with oil that this Peak Resource phenomenon was discovered.
Oil is the key to transportation. Current transportation technologies generally require liquid fuels, and society has chosen that the only way to get liquid fuels is to use fossil oil. The direct result of tight oil supplies will be expensive transportation, and that will contribute to several secondary results to be covered later.
The ever-increasing demand for oil partly occurs as a natural byproduct of rising population. Each person who exists is responsible for consuming resources, so of course the more people there are the more resources which are used. Another cause is a shift from manual technologies like bicycles or horse drawn carts to mechanized technologies like cars and trucks. Some countries, especially India and China, are industrializing and are causing an increased rate of demand. As countries industrialize the amount of resources consumed per person raises as well.
Peak Oil
http://www.7gen.com/article-summary/peak-oil/23991-peak-oil
http://www.cbc.ca/news/background/oil/peak-oil.html
An interview with the authors of Transport Revolutions: Moving People and Freight Without Oil they suggest the U.S. might become so desperate for oil they would invade Canada to get its oil. Maybe the NAFTA is at least partly due to the need to have ready access to Canadian oil.
"The likely outcome of not dealing with this issue is not an environmental catastrophe. It's an economic and social catastrophe that may leave us unable to deal with the environmental catastrophe," Richard Gilbert said in an interview. The effects brought by oil in our society are so critical and fundamental to how we live, that without cheap oil we face starvation, riots, collapsed economies, more wars, and more.
The gushers are gone - "It's the end of the Beverly Hillbillies oil. The kind of oil that you stick a hole in the ground, and it starts squirting a gusher out under its own power." - All the big discoveries have already been made. There are two peaks in oil supply, the first peak is the peak in the rate of discovery of oil, and the second peak is the peak of oil production. The peak of the discovery rate has to precede the peak of production, and the peak of oil discovery is long past.
There's more in this article but we're focused on understanding peak oil here.
World Energy Outlook
http://www.7gen.com/website/government-and-environment/23994-world-energy-outlook
World Energy Outlook 2007 Edition
http://www.7gen.com/website/energy-policy/23996-world-energy-outlook-2007-edition
As Dr. Fatih Birol, Chief Economist of the International Energy Agency, said in testimony to Congress in January 2007: "The world is facing twin energy-related threats: that of not having adequate and secure supplies of energy at affordable prices and that of environmental harm caused by its use. " Not only is the supply threatened, the use of fossil fuels is threatening us all from environmental harm. The burning of fossil fuels releases poisons which directly cause a wide range of diseases. The burning of fossil fuels release greenhouse gasses which are directly causing climate change to be worse. Purchasing fossil fuels results in large capital flows into the Middle East.
"Oil supply is increasingly dominated by a small number of major producers, most of them in the Middle East" which then connects to a variety of global geopolitical manipulations. The oil industry needs to do massive investment in developing oil fields and infrastructure, a total of $4.3 trillion dollars between 2005-2030. However it is uncertain whether the key Middle East countries will actually do so, and it's possible they will deliberately keep investment lower than predicted. Why should they increase production when keeping production low keeps the price high? Or it's possible that a credit crunch might prevent producers from expanding capacity due to a lack of money to pay for the investments.
The U.S. imports more energy than the next 2 highest importers. Most of U.S. imports come from shaky or unfriendly suppliers. Many of the key suppliers are 1-2 months travel time away. There are many scenarios in which "energy" (a.k.a. oil) supplies to the U.S. can be disrupted. One of these unfriendly suppliers could turn downright nasty and cut off oil to the U.S. Or storms could wreck shipping facilities, refinery facilities. Or a war with Iran could block the mouth of the Persian Gulf, preventing shipment of oil from the Middle East.In other words we have to be smart enough to realize the game is changing. That we can no longer continue life in the style to which we have become accustomed. We have to change our ways.
The Shape of Oil to Come
http://www.7gen.com/article-summary/peak-oil/23980-shape-oil-come
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/3060
There are approximately two thoughts to how the peak oil phenomena plays out. The "sharp peak" model says production reaches a peak and rapidly declines. Nobody who has studied this carefully says we will "run out", instead the debate is in how quick is the decline. There are those who think production will, instead, "plateau" for a long time for one reason or another.
Oil megaprojects
http://www.7gen.com/website/oil-industry/23982-oil-megaprojects
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_megaprojects
On Wikipedia the Oil Megaprojects page tracks the known huge oil projects. It's a useful resource to look at and ponder.
The rise of the new energy world order
http://atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/JD17Dj04.html
http://www.7gen.com/article-summary/peak-energy/24136-rise-new-energy-world-order
The world energy crisis is upon us. Dwindling supply and rising demand leads to a simple economics lesson, rising cost. The old equation was cheap energy lead to untold wealth. The new equation is gonna lead to a totally different world power structure.
Technosanity #3: Peak Oil
Links: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil
Links: http://www.cbc.ca/news/background/oil/peak-oil.html
Links: http://www.theoildrum.com/node/3060
Links: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_megaprojects
Links: http://atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/JD17Dj04.html
Links: http://audio.davidherron.com/technosanity/e000003.mp3
Tuesday, June 10, 2008
"America is addicted to oil" - Looking back at the State of the Union, 2006
Given todays crisis with the rising prices for oil and the rising
prices for food, I thought it would be interesting to look back at
George W. Bush's statement "America is addicted to Oil". As
astonishing as it was for GW to be so honest as to admit the national
addiction, as I reread the State of the Union speech this statement was
embedded among some interesting promises related to freeing the U.S.
from dependence on oil. But in the end I think of those as hollow
promises because in the end this is President Enron, Vice President
Halliburton, and the rest, who have lied us into a war meant to capture
control of the Iraqi oil, and how honest could he really be to actually
propose that the U.S. stop spending money on Oil?
What does America is addicted to Oil mean? To me it refers to all the ways in which Oil use is taken for granted as the only way we can conduct business in the U.S.A. The default method to move your body from one location to another? Why, it's to hop in your car and drive. And for 99.999% of Americans that means burning oil. There are a few, like me, who have gone through the steps to have vehicles which don't require burning oil.
Here is the full context of what GW Bush said: (full transcript, State of the Union 2006)
What does America is addicted to Oil mean? To me it refers to all the ways in which Oil use is taken for granted as the only way we can conduct business in the U.S.A. The default method to move your body from one location to another? Why, it's to hop in your car and drive. And for 99.999% of Americans that means burning oil. There are a few, like me, who have gone through the steps to have vehicles which don't require burning oil.
Here is the full context of what GW Bush said: (full transcript, State of the Union 2006)
Keeping America competitive requires affordable energy. And here we have a serious problem: America is addicted to oil, which is often imported from unstable parts of the world. The best way to break this addiction is through technology. Since 2001, we have spent nearly $10 billion to develop cleaner, cheaper, and more reliable alternative energy sources -- and we are on the threshold of incredible advances.
So tonight, I announce the Advanced Energy Initiative -- a 22-percent increase in clean-energy research -- at the Department of Energy, to push for breakthroughs in two vital areas. To change how we power our homes and offices, we will invest more in zero-emission coal-fired plants, revolutionary solar and wind technologies, and clean, safe nuclear energy. (Applause.)
We must also change how we power our automobiles. We will increase our research in better batteries for hybrid and electric cars, and in pollution-free cars that run on hydrogen. We'll also fund additional research in cutting-edge methods of producing ethanol, not just from corn, but from wood chips and stalks, or switch grass. Our goal is to make this new kind of ethanol practical and competitive within six years. (Applause.)He's not proposing any fundamental reform. He's simply proposing finding a way to keep business as usual (cheap energy allowing Americans to be fully wasteful) ... bleah.
Breakthroughs on this and other new technologies will help us reach another great goal: to replace more than 75 percent of our oil imports from the Middle East by 2025. (Applause.) By applying the talent and technology of America, this country can dramatically improve our environment, move beyond a petroleum-based economy, and make our dependence on Middle Eastern oil a thing of the past. (Applause.)
Friday, April 4, 2008
Technosanity #1: News for April 4, 2008
The payoff for plug-in hybrids: 95 years?
http://www.google.org/recharge/
http://www.7gen.com/article-summary/plugin-hybrid-electric/23973-payoff-plugin-hybrids-95-years
Google's project to build plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, RechargeIT.org, has posted figures showing results of several months operating a handful of plug-in Prius's. The results show significant gains in reducing carbon emissions, but the dollar cost benefit is modest. A CNET News report summarized the report in a negative light focusing attention on the modest dollar cost benefit while missing the bigger picture.
Americans prefer energy fix to cancer cure: poll
"A nationwide survey of nearly 700 people suggests Americans would prefer more money be invested in technology to solve the nation's energy ailments than to cure cancer or other diseases.... Men were more likely to choose fuel efficiency as their highest priority, with 43 percent placing it on top compared with only 30 percent of women, the FCEDA survey showed. ... "'When they say alternative fuels and energy, are they talking about energy or things like (the) greenhouse effect--what's really on people's minds?'"
Bamboo a big tool for greenwashing, says noted designer
Bamboo is all the rage for sustainably grown wood for flooring, but is it always "green"? Or is it used to create the illusion of "green", a.k.a. greenwashing.
On the 'transportation of inedible kitchen grease'
A man is arrested in Morgan Hill, CA stealing waste vegetable oil. This leads to exploring some legalities around acquiring the oil to create biodiesel.
The Zero-Carbon Car: Building the Car the Auto Industry Can't Get Right
http://thewatt.com/node/177
A sustainable technology activist has written a book exploring what it would take to balance all the negative environmental impacts of the car.
Start-up wins funding to draw electricity from 'waste' heat
MIT researchers have developed a more efficient means to convert heat into electricity.
Wind power, SkySails, wind powered ships, wow!
Researchers are developing huge kites that can help ocean-going cargo ships move more efficiently and burn less fuel. It's a great idea that harkens back across the millenia of sailing vessels. They recently did a trial run with an 11,000 mile voyage and showed a 20% decrease in fuel use.
Load test on pingping 36v10ah battery
I'm testing a LiFePO4 battery on my bicycle and having a great time with it.
Censoring Science: Inside the Political Attack on Dr. James Hansen and the Truth of Global Warming
Censoring Science: Inside the Political Attack on Dr. James Hansen and the Truth of Global Warming
http://media.switchpod.com/users/democracynow/ftp/dn2008-0321-1.mp3
A NASA scientist, Dr. James Hansen, has serious allegations of government control over how much he can say to the public. It raises serious questions about the ability of government scientists to honestly conduct science. If scientists who discover truths that negate government policy cannot reveal their findings, then doesn't that lead us to hell in a handbasket?
Hype Machine: Searching for ZAP's Fleet of No-Show Green Cars
A WiRED news article goes into detail on troublesome behavior by ZAP. ZAP has been selling electric vehicles for a very long time and it is clear the Chairman, Gary Starr, has true vision and a goal to improve the distribution of electric vehicles in the world. At the same time ZAP's history is extremely spotty and the article goes into great detail.
http://www.google.org/recharge/
http://www.7gen.com/article-summary/plugin-hybrid-electric/23973-payoff-plugin-hybrids-95-years
Google's project to build plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, RechargeIT.org, has posted figures showing results of several months operating a handful of plug-in Prius's. The results show significant gains in reducing carbon emissions, but the dollar cost benefit is modest. A CNET News report summarized the report in a negative light focusing attention on the modest dollar cost benefit while missing the bigger picture.
Americans prefer energy fix to cancer cure: poll
"A nationwide survey of nearly 700 people suggests Americans would prefer more money be invested in technology to solve the nation's energy ailments than to cure cancer or other diseases.... Men were more likely to choose fuel efficiency as their highest priority, with 43 percent placing it on top compared with only 30 percent of women, the FCEDA survey showed. ... "'When they say alternative fuels and energy, are they talking about energy or things like (the) greenhouse effect--what's really on people's minds?'"
Bamboo a big tool for greenwashing, says noted designer
Bamboo is all the rage for sustainably grown wood for flooring, but is it always "green"? Or is it used to create the illusion of "green", a.k.a. greenwashing.
On the 'transportation of inedible kitchen grease'
A man is arrested in Morgan Hill, CA stealing waste vegetable oil. This leads to exploring some legalities around acquiring the oil to create biodiesel.
The Zero-Carbon Car: Building the Car the Auto Industry Can't Get Right
http://thewatt.com/node/177
A sustainable technology activist has written a book exploring what it would take to balance all the negative environmental impacts of the car.
Start-up wins funding to draw electricity from 'waste' heat
MIT researchers have developed a more efficient means to convert heat into electricity.
Wind power, SkySails, wind powered ships, wow!
Researchers are developing huge kites that can help ocean-going cargo ships move more efficiently and burn less fuel. It's a great idea that harkens back across the millenia of sailing vessels. They recently did a trial run with an 11,000 mile voyage and showed a 20% decrease in fuel use.
Load test on pingping 36v10ah battery
I'm testing a LiFePO4 battery on my bicycle and having a great time with it.
Censoring Science: Inside the Political Attack on Dr. James Hansen and the Truth of Global Warming
Censoring Science: Inside the Political Attack on Dr. James Hansen and the Truth of Global Warming
http://media.switchpod.com/users/democracynow/ftp/dn2008-0321-1.mp3
A NASA scientist, Dr. James Hansen, has serious allegations of government control over how much he can say to the public. It raises serious questions about the ability of government scientists to honestly conduct science. If scientists who discover truths that negate government policy cannot reveal their findings, then doesn't that lead us to hell in a handbasket?
Hype Machine: Searching for ZAP's Fleet of No-Show Green Cars
A WiRED news article goes into detail on troublesome behavior by ZAP. ZAP has been selling electric vehicles for a very long time and it is clear the Chairman, Gary Starr, has true vision and a goal to improve the distribution of electric vehicles in the world. At the same time ZAP's history is extremely spotty and the article goes into great detail.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)