A presentation at ASPO-USA 2008 by Mr. Jeremy J Gilbert, Managing Director, Barrelmore Ltd
Jeremy Gilbert. Jeremy is the recently retired Chief Petroleum Engineer
from British Petroleum (BP) where he was responsible for the company's
worldwide petroleum engineering performance and associated research and
development program. He joined BP in 1964.
His topic is a general overview of Peak Oil, specifically focusing on
why it is time for America to wake up to Peak Oil. There have been a
series of wake up calls, but has much changed?
While America has slept on: 2001: Discovery rates continue
decades-long fall; Calculations suggest reserves can’t meet demand
projections; Some recognition of political, investment risk in
developing resources. 2008: No improvement in resource situation; New,
more accurate, calculations of supply define earlier and clearer peak;
Political will to increase supply clearly absent; prices not stimulating
investment to increase supply
There are three problems: Geology, Investment, Policy of main
producers. These, taken together, make the future of oil very difficult
Why are there still political leaders like Newt Gingrich or Henry Kissinger continuing to say there is no problem.
It's not a problem which higher oil prices will fully solve.
According to these leaders or to most economists it is a simple problem
of supply and demand. Higher demand will cause a higher price and it
will do two things, incentivize customers to cut back, and incentivize
energy producing countries to look for more oil or to use alternative
methods. But this ignores a deeply serious problem, that in oil field
after oil field it has been observed that oil production reaches a peak
at the midway point, and then inevitably goes into a production decline.
No amount of money will change the issue that the planet cannot
provide more oil.
Technosanity #16: Peak Oil Global Overview, An American Wake Up Call
Links: http://www.aspo-usa.org/aspousa4/proceedings/Gilbert_Jeremy_ASPOUSA2008.pdf
Links: Mr. Jeremy J Gilbert, Managing Director, Barrelmore Ltd
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