The
World Energy Outlook is a yearly publication from the
International Energy Agency
giving the official projection of the future energy outlook. They just
released the 2008 report and there are a couple slide decks available
giving some hints of what is contained in the report.
WEO 2008 Presentation at COP 14 Side Event
Launch of World Energy Outlook 2008
World primary energy demand in the reference scenario - they say it's
"unsustainable" without explaining why. World energy demand expands by
45% between now and 2030, a very rapid rise, an average rate of
increase of 1.6% per year, with coal accounting for more than a third of
the overall rise.
Demand for coal has been growing faster than any other energy source
& is projected to account for more than a third of incremental
global energy demand to 2030
World oil production by source is very scary. The IEA figures show a
decline in crude oil production from the currently producing fields
begining in 2008. er.. That decline has already begun? There is a
growing gap in production of the currently producing fields and their
claimed future oil production. What makes up that gap is crude oil from
fields that are yet to be developed, and this includes use of enhanced
oil recovery techniques. They further explain that 64 million barrels
per day of capacity needs to be installed between 2007 and 2030, which
is six times the current capacity of Saudi Arabia. From where will the
money come to pay for this infrastructure even if the oil is there to
fill the demand?
97% of the projected increase in emissions between now & 2030
comes from non-OECD countries –three-quarters from China, India &
the Middle East alone
OECD countries alone cannot put the world onto a 450-ppm trajectory, even if they were to reduce their emissions to zero
These last two slides show that the problem is coming from the
developing countries, primarily China and India. They are of course
where the hugest quantity of industrialization is occuring.
World primary energy demand in the reference scenario - they say it's
"unsustainable" without explaining why. World energy demand expands by
45% between now and 2030, a very rapid rise, an average rate of increase
of 1.6% per year, with coal accounting for more than a third of the
overall rise.
Demand for coal has been growing faster than any other energy source
& is projected to account for more than a third of incremental
global energy demand to 2030
World oil production by source is very scary. The IEA figures show a
decline in crude oil production from the currently producing fields
begining in 2008. er.. That decline has already begun? There is a
growing gap in production of the currently producing fields and their
claimed future oil production. What makes up that gap is crude oil from
fields that are yet to be developed, and this includes use of enhanced
oil recovery techniques. They further explain that 64 million barrels
per day of capacity needs to be installed between 2007 and 2030, which
is six times the current capacity of Saudi Arabia. From where will the
money come to pay for this infrastructure even if the oil is there to
fill the demand?
97% of the projected increase in emissions between now & 2030
comes from non-OECD countries –three-quarters from China, India &
the Middle East alone
OECD countries alone cannot put the world onto a 450-ppm trajectory, even if they were to reduce their emissions to zero
These last two slides show that the problem is coming from the
developing countries, primarily China and India. They are of course
where the hugest quantity of industrialization is occuring.
Current energy trends are patently unsustainable —socially, environmentally, economically
Oil will remain the leading energy source but...
- The era of cheap oil is over, although price volatility will remain
- Oilfield decline is the keydeterminant of investment needs
- The oil market is undergoing major and lasting structural change, with national companies in the ascendancy
To avoid "abrupt and irreversible" climate change we need a major decarbonisation of the world’s energy system
- Copenhagen must deliver a credible post-2012 climate regime
- Limiting temperature rise to 2°C will require significant emission reductions in allregions & technological breakthroughs
- Mitigating climate change will substantially improve energy security
The present economic worries do not excuse back-tracking or delays in taking action to address energy challenges
Technosanity #20: World Energy Outlook 2008
Links:
World Energy Outlook
Links:
International Energy Agency
Links:
WEO 2008 Presentation at COP 14 Side Event
Links:
Launch of World Energy Outlook 2008
