I'm attending the yearly gathering of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and my method of traveling to the conference gave me a word to ponder. Normalthink is the accepted normal pattern of behavior that "everybody" follows without really thinking.
In this case normalthink says "everybody drives" and that is
the normalthink way I would have traveled to the conference. It's held
in a city 150 miles from my home, the kind of trip where normalthink
says "lets hop in the car and go". But it's this kind of normalthink which is making our peak oil situation the danger it is.
When normalthink leads everybody to continue using oil then as
population increases the demand for oil increases. But there are a lot
of choices which are being made from normalthink, namely the choice that
since "everybody drives" that the only way to travel is by car, and
that since normalthink says all cars are driven with gasoline that
therefore "everybody drives" leads to "everybody uses oil". There are
several unexamined questions in this which could be made differently and
if made differently would change the situation regarding oil and the
peak oil scenario would not be playing out as it is.
Normalthink, the way "everybody" behaves
Links: http://audio.davidherron.com/technosanity/normalthink.mp3
Saturday, September 20, 2008
Friday, September 19, 2008
Technosanity #10: Monoculture ramble
Monoculture
is the practice of producing or growing one single crop over a wide
area. The term is also applied in several fields....The dependence on
monoculture crops can lead to large scale failures when the single
genetic variant or cultivar becomes susceptible to a pathogen or when a
change in weather patterns occur. The Great Irish Famine (1845-1849)
was caused by susceptibility of the potato to Phytophthora infestans.
The wine industry in Europe was devastated by susceptibility to
Phylloxera during the late 19th century. Each crop then had to be
replaced by a new cultivar imported from another country that had used a
different genetic variant that was not susceptible to the pathogen. Today's episode takes this idea on a tangent. American society is hooked on specific things which have the nature of monoculture, and the principle example is the use of oil to move our butts around town.
Nature abhors monocultures. Nature abhors them so much that they do not exist in accordance with nature. They would be unknown but for modern man. That from a blog post by Patrick Deneen last April which is very much in the same vein as my early morning ramble. As he says our "modern" culture is woven from monoculture of all kind, from the sparsely few varieties of food we have in the stores to the sparsely few varieties of opinions presented in the corporate controlled media, to the sparsely few choices we have in vehicles, etc etc etc. I can hear the question, "Few varieties of food?" Clearly I must be smoking something strong, right? Well consider how even though the grocery stores are burstingly full of a dizzying array of brands, just how little true variety there is. There may be 20 brands of canned corn products but the corn itself is all pretty much the same plant. That even though there are hundreds of species of corn known to agriculturists, the modern practice of agriculture and food marketing causes there to be very few varieties that make it to the grocery stores and can be bought by people.
What if there is some other kind of global crop infestation which wipes out our food supply because everybody on the planet grows the same food?
Monoculture isn't just about crops and food. It's thinking patterns, it's other kinds of products, it's culture, it's language, etc. What of the shrinking number of languages spoken in the world? What are we as a global society losing with every language which goes extinct? What are we as a global society losing as local accents and idioms are lost to a monoculture of speech promulgated by centralized media talking heads?
A huge danger is the monoculture of transportation technology, fuel for transportation, etc. The fossil oil from which gasoline and diesel is made will run out "soon". If we as a global society do not prepare for the eventual total disruption of oil supply, it will kill this beautiful global culture that has been built the last couple hundred years. Fossil oil and the transportation technology which it enabled allowed the global culture to get to know itself because rapid global transit has allowed us to see how everybody else lives, travel to other places, have a broader horizon of our understanding etc. But the technological choices available to us for travel are strongly limited to one fuel source: fossil oil. And fossil oil is due to run out "soon".
In this episode I end with a great question. The peak oil scenario describes our future, that fossil oil consumption will continue rising until the oil companies are no longer able to increase production. Once they reach the peak in production there is an inevitable decrease in available oil products and our global society will enter a crisis, due to its addiction to oil. There will be a window of opportunity to replace fossil oil as the driving force of our global society. Will we be able to quickly enough field a replacement technology infrastructure to enable global travel for our global society? Our ability to do this, to replace fossil oil driven technology with something else is what will determine whether our global society navigates through the coming crisis, or whether our global society crumbles into oblivion.
This episode is an early morning ramble. I literally had this idea floating in my mind as I woke up one morning, and I went directly to the computer and started recording. The text above does not directly correspond to what I said, but they're pointing in the same direction and covering the same territory. If the episode sounds like it's rambling and tangential, it is because I had literally just woken up. I felt like I was onto a cool idea... well, there's certainly a strong thread of a cool idea.
Technosanity #10: Monoculture ramble
Links: http://audio.davidherron.com/technosanity/e000009.mp3
Links: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monoculture
Links: Monoculture considered harmful
Links: http://patrickdeneen.blogspot.com/2008/04/against-monoculture.html
Links: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qU57-eac9po
Links: Our future does not include an energy monoculture
Nature abhors monocultures. Nature abhors them so much that they do not exist in accordance with nature. They would be unknown but for modern man. That from a blog post by Patrick Deneen last April which is very much in the same vein as my early morning ramble. As he says our "modern" culture is woven from monoculture of all kind, from the sparsely few varieties of food we have in the stores to the sparsely few varieties of opinions presented in the corporate controlled media, to the sparsely few choices we have in vehicles, etc etc etc. I can hear the question, "Few varieties of food?" Clearly I must be smoking something strong, right? Well consider how even though the grocery stores are burstingly full of a dizzying array of brands, just how little true variety there is. There may be 20 brands of canned corn products but the corn itself is all pretty much the same plant. That even though there are hundreds of species of corn known to agriculturists, the modern practice of agriculture and food marketing causes there to be very few varieties that make it to the grocery stores and can be bought by people.
What if there is some other kind of global crop infestation which wipes out our food supply because everybody on the planet grows the same food?
Monoculture isn't just about crops and food. It's thinking patterns, it's other kinds of products, it's culture, it's language, etc. What of the shrinking number of languages spoken in the world? What are we as a global society losing with every language which goes extinct? What are we as a global society losing as local accents and idioms are lost to a monoculture of speech promulgated by centralized media talking heads?
A huge danger is the monoculture of transportation technology, fuel for transportation, etc. The fossil oil from which gasoline and diesel is made will run out "soon". If we as a global society do not prepare for the eventual total disruption of oil supply, it will kill this beautiful global culture that has been built the last couple hundred years. Fossil oil and the transportation technology which it enabled allowed the global culture to get to know itself because rapid global transit has allowed us to see how everybody else lives, travel to other places, have a broader horizon of our understanding etc. But the technological choices available to us for travel are strongly limited to one fuel source: fossil oil. And fossil oil is due to run out "soon".
In this episode I end with a great question. The peak oil scenario describes our future, that fossil oil consumption will continue rising until the oil companies are no longer able to increase production. Once they reach the peak in production there is an inevitable decrease in available oil products and our global society will enter a crisis, due to its addiction to oil. There will be a window of opportunity to replace fossil oil as the driving force of our global society. Will we be able to quickly enough field a replacement technology infrastructure to enable global travel for our global society? Our ability to do this, to replace fossil oil driven technology with something else is what will determine whether our global society navigates through the coming crisis, or whether our global society crumbles into oblivion.
This episode is an early morning ramble. I literally had this idea floating in my mind as I woke up one morning, and I went directly to the computer and started recording. The text above does not directly correspond to what I said, but they're pointing in the same direction and covering the same territory. If the episode sounds like it's rambling and tangential, it is because I had literally just woken up. I felt like I was onto a cool idea... well, there's certainly a strong thread of a cool idea.
Technosanity #10: Monoculture ramble
Links: http://audio.davidherron.com/technosanity/e000009.mp3
Links: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monoculture
Links: Monoculture considered harmful
Links: http://patrickdeneen.blogspot.com/2008/04/against-monoculture.html
Links: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qU57-eac9po
Links: Our future does not include an energy monoculture
Saturday, September 6, 2008
Technosanity #9: 36th Annual Silicon Valley EV Rally
The Silicon Valley EAA Chapter has done a yearly rally for, now, 36 years and I have been attending for 10 years or so. Back the major car companies showed up, the most impressive being GM's presence with the EV1. They'd arrive with one or two tractor trailer
trucks with 4 EV1's and make them available for test rides. I got to
test drive the EV1 a couple times due to this, and other car companies
showed up back then as well. Needless to say, since GM axe murdered the
EV1, that the major car companies did not show up today. But there
were still a lot of people attending anyway.
Car companies in attendance included:-
AC propulsion: http://www.acpropulsion.com/
Green E Motors: http://greenemotor.com (since defunct)
Green Rides: http://greenrides.com (since defunct) -- BTW in the podcast episode I only mentioned the EVT4000. They also had on display a kitcar conversion they're getting ready to sell. It's a kitcar version of the old Spyder sports car, and converted to electric drive they're claim it will cost $50,000.
Electric Bikes: http://electric-bikes.com
Green Vehicles: http://greenvehicles.com (since defunct) -- I wrote a piece about their Triac on V is for Voltage
Electric Motorsport: http://electricmotorsport.com -- I wrote a piece about their GPR-S motorcycle on V is for Voltage
Technosanity #9: 36th Annual Silicon Valley EV Rally
Links: http://audio.davidherron.com/technosanity/e000008.mp3
Car companies in attendance included:-
AC propulsion: http://www.acpropulsion.com/
Green E Motors: http://greenemotor.com (since defunct)
Green Rides: http://greenrides.com (since defunct) -- BTW in the podcast episode I only mentioned the EVT4000. They also had on display a kitcar conversion they're getting ready to sell. It's a kitcar version of the old Spyder sports car, and converted to electric drive they're claim it will cost $50,000.
Electric Bikes: http://electric-bikes.com
Green Vehicles: http://greenvehicles.com (since defunct) -- I wrote a piece about their Triac on V is for Voltage
Electric Motorsport: http://electricmotorsport.com -- I wrote a piece about their GPR-S motorcycle on V is for Voltage
Technosanity #9: 36th Annual Silicon Valley EV Rally
Links: http://audio.davidherron.com/technosanity/e000008.mp3
Tuesday, September 2, 2008
Technosanity #8: Growing popularity of high miles/gallon motorcycles
Parking cars, climbing on scooters
You may have noticed more scooters or motorcycles on the road this summer. They are small, usually very fuel efficient and cheaper to operate than a car. Many customers say they are giving scooters or motorbikes a try because of the great fuel mileage they get.
Electric scooters designed for commuters
The Vectrix is an electric maxi-scooter which recently came on the market. It has great cargo capacity, goes fast enough to travel on highway's, has enough range to handle typical commutes with ease, and zero emissions. The San Rafael dealership has sold 23 Vectrix scooters since they became available in May.
Rising Fuel Prices and Recession Fears Spur Nationwide Interest in Motorcycles and Scooters
A July 21, 2008 article in PowerSports Business reported that first half scooter sales increased by sixty five percent, validating a consumer trend towards more fuel efficient transportation. "The era of smaller, more fuel efficient vehicles is upon us," commented Anthony Havens, Sparta's CEO. "Until recently, motorcycles and scooters were considered the choice of enthusiasts, or people who were just interested in fun and recreation. But, with gas prices dramatically rising, we believe a growing number of consumers will be interested in buying or leasing motorcycles and scooters for extremely practical reasons. With most motorcycles averaging from 40 to 60 miles per gallon and many scooters averaging up to 70 or more miles per gallon, a lot of people are now interested in acquiring these vehicles for commuting to and from work and for local and mid-distance transportation."
70 Extra Parking Spaces for Growing Biker Population
In New Zealand they're having enough growth of motorcycle riders to require more parking.
US drivers log 12bn fewer miles in June
In the U.S. the roads are less crowded than ever, perhaps due to this 'Staycation' effect.
‘Auto rickshaw’ gives Waukesha man cheap, fun ride
3 wheels and 70 miles per gallon
In other countries (India, China, etc) three wheeled cycle-car's are pretty popular. In India the auto-rickshaw's are the ubiquitous taxi service available any time of day or night. They began life as scooters but with a bench seat in the back and a cover to help keep out rain. Some are importing these into the U.S.
Aptera Typ-1 pushes design and efficiency to new ground
The Aptera looks for all the world to be a wingless airplane. It is an electric three wheeled vehicle whose aerodynamic styling creates the airplane illusion. It gets a 200 mile range per charge, holds two people plus cargo. It is due to begin delivery to paying customers in late 2008 and they have well over 2000 people pledged to buy vehicles.
Number of motorcycle deaths increasing in Washington
Motorcycle safety is everyone’s responsibility
Motorcycle Safety Foundation -- http://www.msf-usa.org/ -- Get trained and licensed. -- Wear personal protective gear — Ride unimpaired by alcohol or other drugs. -- Ride within your own skill limits. -- Be a lifelong learner by taking refresher rider courses.
National Highway and Transportation Administration -- http://www.nhtsa.gov/ -- motorcycle fatalities 2,116 in 1997 to more than 4,800 in 2006 -- Motorcycle registration has jumped 63 percent between 1997 and 2005.
Motorcyclists Learn Safety First
Motorcycle Safety Foundation Calls for Commencement of Motorcycle Crash Causation Study
Death by Motorcycle: Rates Continue to Rise
Motorists push for motorcycle lanes
Can Rising Motorcycle Fatalities Be Blamed on a Lack of Helmet Laws?
Gas prices drive increase in motorcycle injuries
Motorcycle riding is inherently dangerous, the motorcyclist is less visible, and in case of collision there is no protection. What gives a motorcyclist safety is to avoid crashes, and you do this through practicing safe operation, through being aware of the traffic, planning ahead what actions to take, etc.
In case of collision wearing safety gear reduces the extent of injuries. Yet there have been a decrease in U.S. states requiring motorcyclists to wear helmets. Crazy.
What I took from the motorcycle safety training is the value of awareness. They teach an awareness practice you can use while riding a motorcycle. It involves constant scanning the road ahead of you for potential dangers and preemptively planning responses in case of problem. A key thing is to look far enough ahead to account for your reaction time. That is, how far down the road will you travel in 4 seconds? It's because 4 seconds (or so) is the typical reaction time, and if an emergency comes up you'll have 4 seconds before your reaction kicks in. Can you do it? Only if you pay attention to where you're going and what you're doing (thank you Yoda).
But an interesting side learning for me from this has to do with improved safety in car driving. Namely... I know that I'm not the only one who does this, that essentially everybody is doing this: I get in my car and somehow I get to my destination and don't remember how I got there and my mind wandered the whole time. HOW SAFE CAN THAT BE?
That's not safe at all, is it? Hm? Be honest now. That's a totally dangerous thing, right? Somehow it works most of the time and perhaps we're being lulled by how often it works. But let's be real ... this is dangerous.
Perhaps everybody should be required to learn to ride a motorcycle and take the motorcycle safety training ...?
Anyway, back to motorcycles
Motorcycles are fuel efficient... they require less resources to build the motorcycles.. and they take less land.
That last is a little hard to see and I want to make sure it's understood. Ponder if you will the typical city. Wide highways, perhaps 8 lanes each way, lots of parking lots, a garage at each house, lots of city streets, etc. Shopping centers are required to size their parking lots based on the maximal shopping time (Christmas) meaning the lots are only half full most of the time. Same for the roads, if a highway becomes clogged during rush hour the citizens will bitch and moan to the highway administration until the highway people build more roads. But the rush hour is, uh, an hour in the morning and an hour in the evening meaning they're sizing the roads to handle the worst part of the day and the other 22 hours of the day the roads are not so clogged.
In short there's a lot of land tied up with storing cars while they're parked, and space for them to drive around.
Because motorcycles are smaller that means you can pack more motorcycles per unit of road and park more motorcycles per unit of parking lot. Motorcycles and bicycles represent a better land use deal than do cars. An even better land use arrangement is mass transit systems.
Technosanity #8: Growing popularity of high miles/gallon motorcycles
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