Q&A session with Ken Verosub and Jeremy Gilbert immediately following the
presentations they gave and which were broadcast in immediately prior
Technosanity Podcast episodes.
Technosanity #17: QA session with Ken Verosub, Jeremy Gilbert
Friday, October 31, 2008
Technosanity #16: Peak Oil Global Overview, An American Wake Up Call
A presentation at ASPO-USA 2008 by Mr. Jeremy J Gilbert, Managing Director, Barrelmore Ltd
Jeremy Gilbert. Jeremy is the recently retired Chief Petroleum Engineer
from British Petroleum (BP) where he was responsible for the company's
worldwide petroleum engineering performance and associated research and
development program. He joined BP in 1964.
His topic is a general overview of Peak Oil, specifically focusing on why it is time for America to wake up to Peak Oil. There have been a series of wake up calls, but has much changed?
While America has slept on: 2001: Discovery rates continue decades-long fall; Calculations suggest reserves can’t meet demand projections; Some recognition of political, investment risk in developing resources. 2008: No improvement in resource situation; New, more accurate, calculations of supply define earlier and clearer peak; Political will to increase supply clearly absent; prices not stimulating investment to increase supply
There are three problems: Geology, Investment, Policy of main producers. These, taken together, make the future of oil very difficult
Why are there still political leaders like Newt Gingrich or Henry Kissinger continuing to say there is no problem.
It's not a problem which higher oil prices will fully solve. According to these leaders or to most economists it is a simple problem of supply and demand. Higher demand will cause a higher price and it will do two things, incentivize customers to cut back, and incentivize energy producing countries to look for more oil or to use alternative methods. But this ignores a deeply serious problem, that in oil field after oil field it has been observed that oil production reaches a peak at the midway point, and then inevitably goes into a production decline. No amount of money will change the issue that the planet cannot provide more oil.
Technosanity #16: Peak Oil Global Overview, An American Wake Up Call
Links: http://www.aspo-usa.org/aspousa4/proceedings/Gilbert_Jeremy_ASPOUSA2008.pdf
Links: Mr. Jeremy J Gilbert, Managing Director, Barrelmore Ltd
His topic is a general overview of Peak Oil, specifically focusing on why it is time for America to wake up to Peak Oil. There have been a series of wake up calls, but has much changed?
While America has slept on: 2001: Discovery rates continue decades-long fall; Calculations suggest reserves can’t meet demand projections; Some recognition of political, investment risk in developing resources. 2008: No improvement in resource situation; New, more accurate, calculations of supply define earlier and clearer peak; Political will to increase supply clearly absent; prices not stimulating investment to increase supply
There are three problems: Geology, Investment, Policy of main producers. These, taken together, make the future of oil very difficult
Why are there still political leaders like Newt Gingrich or Henry Kissinger continuing to say there is no problem.
It's not a problem which higher oil prices will fully solve. According to these leaders or to most economists it is a simple problem of supply and demand. Higher demand will cause a higher price and it will do two things, incentivize customers to cut back, and incentivize energy producing countries to look for more oil or to use alternative methods. But this ignores a deeply serious problem, that in oil field after oil field it has been observed that oil production reaches a peak at the midway point, and then inevitably goes into a production decline. No amount of money will change the issue that the planet cannot provide more oil.
Technosanity #16: Peak Oil Global Overview, An American Wake Up Call
Links: http://www.aspo-usa.org/aspousa4/proceedings/Gilbert_Jeremy_ASPOUSA2008.pdf
Links: Mr. Jeremy J Gilbert, Managing Director, Barrelmore Ltd
Wednesday, October 29, 2008
Technosanity #15: Naomi Klein, Shock Doctrine presentation in Santa Cruz
This is a presentation given by Naomi Klein equating the financial meltdown
of August/September/October 2008 with her general thesis of the Shock
Doctrine of Disaster Capitalism. This thesis cuts to the heart of the
reshaping of whole societies, using disasters as a means to justify
enacting societal changes which would normally be untenable but under
the influence of some kind of disaster societies are more agreeable to
suggestions they would not normally accept. This idea is not new, other
writers have discussed the same pattern. After a stunning disaster the
society is in shock, and into that moment of widespread shock the
leader steps in and says "I have a plan" and offers to save the day.
What's different in Naomi Klein's thesis is the agenda.. namely of using disasters, sometimes natural sometimes invented, to push an agenda of corporatization of everything and corporate control of everything.
This is a rebroadcast of a radio program produced for Free Radio Santa Cruz 101fm of Naomi Klein talking at the Rio Theater in Santa Cruz Ca. on Oct 17, 2008
FRSC coverage of the sold out event includes the short documentary "The Shock Doctrine" by Naomi Klein and Alfonso Cuarón Watch it here http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aSF0e6oO_tw
The event was put on by the awesome folks at the Resource Center for Nonviolence and Women’s International League for Peace and Freedom. Introduction by Bill Monning music by: Thievery Corporation.
Naomi's Book: The Shock Doctrine: The Rise of Disaster Capitalism: In THE SHOCK DOCTRINE, Naomi Klein explodes the myth that the global free market triumphed democratically. Exposing the thinking, the money trail and the puppet strings behind the world-changing crises and wars of the last four decades, The Shock Doctrine is the gripping story of how America’s “free market” policies have come to dominate the world-- through the exploitation of disaster-shocked people and countries.
Recorded, edited and produced by Skidmark Bob http://popdefectradio.blogspot.com/ For Free Radio Santa Cruz 101fm
Prior coverage:
http://www.7gen.com/blog-entry/conspiracies/elites-plan-reshape-world-one-disaster-time/245
http://www.7gen.com/website-categories/disastercapitalism
http://www.7gen.com/website-categories/shockdoctrine
Technosanity #15: Naomi Klein, Shock Doctrine presentation in Santa Cruz
Links: http://radio.indymedia.org/en/node/17046
Links: http://www.naomiklein.org/shock-doctrine
Links: http://popdefectradio.blogspot.com/
Links: http://audio.davidherron.com/technosanity/FRSC_Naomi_Klein_10-17-08.mp3
What's different in Naomi Klein's thesis is the agenda.. namely of using disasters, sometimes natural sometimes invented, to push an agenda of corporatization of everything and corporate control of everything.
This is a rebroadcast of a radio program produced for Free Radio Santa Cruz 101fm of Naomi Klein talking at the Rio Theater in Santa Cruz Ca. on Oct 17, 2008
FRSC coverage of the sold out event includes the short documentary "The Shock Doctrine" by Naomi Klein and Alfonso Cuarón Watch it here http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aSF0e6oO_tw
The event was put on by the awesome folks at the Resource Center for Nonviolence and Women’s International League for Peace and Freedom. Introduction by Bill Monning music by: Thievery Corporation.
Naomi's Book: The Shock Doctrine: The Rise of Disaster Capitalism: In THE SHOCK DOCTRINE, Naomi Klein explodes the myth that the global free market triumphed democratically. Exposing the thinking, the money trail and the puppet strings behind the world-changing crises and wars of the last four decades, The Shock Doctrine is the gripping story of how America’s “free market” policies have come to dominate the world-- through the exploitation of disaster-shocked people and countries.
Recorded, edited and produced by Skidmark Bob http://popdefectradio.blogspot.com/ For Free Radio Santa Cruz 101fm
Prior coverage:
http://www.7gen.com/blog-entry/conspiracies/elites-plan-reshape-world-one-disaster-time/245
http://www.7gen.com/website-categories/disastercapitalism
http://www.7gen.com/website-categories/shockdoctrine
Technosanity #15: Naomi Klein, Shock Doctrine presentation in Santa Cruz
Links: http://radio.indymedia.org/en/node/17046
Links: http://www.naomiklein.org/shock-doctrine
Links: http://popdefectradio.blogspot.com/
Links: http://audio.davidherron.com/technosanity/FRSC_Naomi_Klein_10-17-08.mp3
Sunday, October 26, 2008
Technosanity #14: Petroleum & Peak Oil 101
Petroleum 101
Mr. Ken Verosub, Geology Professor, University of California, Davis
http://www.aspo-usa.com/aspousa4/ConfirmedSpeakers.cfm?bid=522
slides: http://www.aspo-usa.org/aspousa4/proceedings/Verosub_Ken_Petro_101_ASPOUSA2008.pdf
Specialist in paleomagnetism of sediments, the history of the geomagnetic field. He presents an introductory lecture in Petroleum Geology giving an overview of how geology & biology came together to create the gift of oil.
For the planet to create oil requires that a quantity of dead sea organisms get trapped beneath a sandy "reservoir rock" by a solid "cap rock". The decay of those sea organisms becomes oil. It takes special conditions to do this and geologists have pretty much mapped out the planet for these resources.
A salt dome is one common trap for oil to form in. And it's the easiest to find. Salt domes produce localized gravity or magnetic deviations and in some cases you can simply fly over them and see them.
Generally geologists study the subsurface conditions using "Reflector Seismology". The modern technique uses a 'thumper truck' which bang the ground real hard, and then "geophones" are used to pick up reflected sound. The pattern of reflections tells them a lot about subsurface conditions. A similar method is used at sea, with a ship towing geophones through the water.
They're able to gather 2-D and 3-D pictures of subsurface conditions which make for interesting maps of what had previously been mountain ranges, coastal planes, ocean floors, etc.
The history of an individual well is a play in three acts. Act one is the initial discovery, drilling, and development of the oil field. Act 2 is a long plateau of extracting oil. Act three is a diminishment with an inevitable decline in oil extraction.
The model behind peak oil comes from taking the production curves of a group of oil fields .. and summing them together. For example take all the fields in a given region or country, sum their production curves, and it comes close to a bell curve. M. King Hubbert put this model together.
Hubbert's prediction for U.S. oil production was made in 1956. He had the distinction of being very close to the actual results.
Discoveries lead production. Because it takes 10 or more years to develop an oil field into production, the rate of discoveries is a predictor for future oil availability. The rate of oil discoveries peaked in the early 1960's and new oil field discoveries has been in a decline ever since. If there are little or no new oil field discoveries then ultimately oil production has to decline as the existing fields peter out.
Newt Gingrich's "Drill Here, Drill Now, Pay Less" plan is shown as an example of poppycock solutions being pushed.
Finding or getting to the new oil is not easy or cheap. Offshore oil rigs cost over $1 billion apiece.
Finding big fields is unlikely. Oil company geologists have been all over the planet and their continual quest for new oil still hasn't reversed the decline in oil discoveries.
Even if new fields were to be drilled it takes 10-20 or more years to bring a field online. If we enter a decline in oil production soon, then new fields will only help in 2020 or further into the future.
The U.S. has 20 billion bbl of oil reserves. Total U.S. daily consumption in 2005 was 20.7 million per day, and we import 11.7 per day. That's approx 7 years of supply.
Major crisis due in 2015ish perhaps. 2008+7=2015. The U.S. oil production is going to be declining and the ratio of imports to usage will simply be ever-increasing. As the ratio becomes higher it makes the U.S. economy weaker and weaker, and the U.S. ever more desparate for oil.
But this guys presentation is only one set of figures. The USGS and others have different projections of future oil. They're claiming a peak further out into the future than ASPO projections say.
Another aspect is it isn't just a U.S. problem. Other countries are in on this. In particular the former-3rd-world countries which are industrializing mainly China and India are increasing their ratio of energy use. Globalization of production makes for higher transportation costs, and higher fuel usage. From that viewpoint also, in about 7 years demand for oil will exceed maximum total oil production.
What happens then?
Technosanity #14: Petroleum & Peak Oil 101
Links: http://audio.davidherron.com/technosanity/episode-14-petroleum-101.mp3
Links: http://www.aspo-usa.com/aspousa4/ConfirmedSpeakers.cfm?bid=522
Links: http://www.aspo-usa.org/aspousa4/proceedings/Verosub_Ken_Petro_101_ASPOUSA2008.p...
Mr. Ken Verosub, Geology Professor, University of California, Davis
http://www.aspo-usa.com/aspousa4/ConfirmedSpeakers.cfm?bid=522
slides: http://www.aspo-usa.org/aspousa4/proceedings/Verosub_Ken_Petro_101_ASPOUSA2008.pdf
Specialist in paleomagnetism of sediments, the history of the geomagnetic field. He presents an introductory lecture in Petroleum Geology giving an overview of how geology & biology came together to create the gift of oil.
For the planet to create oil requires that a quantity of dead sea organisms get trapped beneath a sandy "reservoir rock" by a solid "cap rock". The decay of those sea organisms becomes oil. It takes special conditions to do this and geologists have pretty much mapped out the planet for these resources.
A salt dome is one common trap for oil to form in. And it's the easiest to find. Salt domes produce localized gravity or magnetic deviations and in some cases you can simply fly over them and see them.
Generally geologists study the subsurface conditions using "Reflector Seismology". The modern technique uses a 'thumper truck' which bang the ground real hard, and then "geophones" are used to pick up reflected sound. The pattern of reflections tells them a lot about subsurface conditions. A similar method is used at sea, with a ship towing geophones through the water.
They're able to gather 2-D and 3-D pictures of subsurface conditions which make for interesting maps of what had previously been mountain ranges, coastal planes, ocean floors, etc.
The history of an individual well is a play in three acts. Act one is the initial discovery, drilling, and development of the oil field. Act 2 is a long plateau of extracting oil. Act three is a diminishment with an inevitable decline in oil extraction.
The model behind peak oil comes from taking the production curves of a group of oil fields .. and summing them together. For example take all the fields in a given region or country, sum their production curves, and it comes close to a bell curve. M. King Hubbert put this model together.
Hubbert's prediction for U.S. oil production was made in 1956. He had the distinction of being very close to the actual results.
Discoveries lead production. Because it takes 10 or more years to develop an oil field into production, the rate of discoveries is a predictor for future oil availability. The rate of oil discoveries peaked in the early 1960's and new oil field discoveries has been in a decline ever since. If there are little or no new oil field discoveries then ultimately oil production has to decline as the existing fields peter out.
Newt Gingrich's "Drill Here, Drill Now, Pay Less" plan is shown as an example of poppycock solutions being pushed.
Finding or getting to the new oil is not easy or cheap. Offshore oil rigs cost over $1 billion apiece.
Finding big fields is unlikely. Oil company geologists have been all over the planet and their continual quest for new oil still hasn't reversed the decline in oil discoveries.
Even if new fields were to be drilled it takes 10-20 or more years to bring a field online. If we enter a decline in oil production soon, then new fields will only help in 2020 or further into the future.
The U.S. has 20 billion bbl of oil reserves. Total U.S. daily consumption in 2005 was 20.7 million per day, and we import 11.7 per day. That's approx 7 years of supply.
Major crisis due in 2015ish perhaps. 2008+7=2015. The U.S. oil production is going to be declining and the ratio of imports to usage will simply be ever-increasing. As the ratio becomes higher it makes the U.S. economy weaker and weaker, and the U.S. ever more desparate for oil.
But this guys presentation is only one set of figures. The USGS and others have different projections of future oil. They're claiming a peak further out into the future than ASPO projections say.
Another aspect is it isn't just a U.S. problem. Other countries are in on this. In particular the former-3rd-world countries which are industrializing mainly China and India are increasing their ratio of energy use. Globalization of production makes for higher transportation costs, and higher fuel usage. From that viewpoint also, in about 7 years demand for oil will exceed maximum total oil production.
What happens then?
Technosanity #14: Petroleum & Peak Oil 101
Links: http://audio.davidherron.com/technosanity/episode-14-petroleum-101.mp3
Links: http://www.aspo-usa.com/aspousa4/ConfirmedSpeakers.cfm?bid=522
Links: http://www.aspo-usa.org/aspousa4/proceedings/Verosub_Ken_Petro_101_ASPOUSA2008.p...
Technosanity #13: Peter Wells at ASPO-USA 2008
Peter Wells.. Neftex Petroleum Consultants, Ltd
bio: http://www.aspo-usa.org/aspousa4/ConfirmedSpeakers.cfm?bid=510
slides: http://www.aspo-usa.org/aspousa4/proceedings/Wells_Peter_OPEC_ASPOUSA2008.pdf
Oil geologist and other work in the oil industry in the Middle East, former Soviet Union, West Aftrica, etc. Currently working as a consultant with one contract being Toyota. Toyota had studied and internalized Peak Oil long ago, and 6 yrs later developed the Prius.
OPEC countries are the major oil producers. They produce 43% of world oil, and this is growing. They have a dilemna about investing in more production capacity. They are being asked to make more investment but they did so in the 1980's only to see demand dry up. They are reluctant to make more investments which will sit idle.
Venezuela & Iran & Iraq are a bloc of OPEC which want high prices. Many countries, especially middle east, see their oil as a National Heritage which they can leave to their grand-children. If they use it all up doing production at the highest rate possible then their National Heritage will be gone. Hence the middle east countries are likely to limit oil production for this reason.
OPEC exploration success peaked 40 years ago. In general there has been little success with oil exploration for a very very very long time (40 years). The argument is there are no major oil fields left to find.
He showed several charts of all the liquid fuels. The "liquids model" includes all forms of liquid fuels, including liquified natural gas, biofuels, tar sands, etc. Everything but crude oil is a miniscule slice compared to what crude oil supplies. For these other sources to replace crude oil is a huge leap to accomplish.
There was a price floor of $20/bbl which is the amount Saudi Arabia required to run their country. In 2002 the oil prices began to rise. Around that time the 'spare capacity' started peaking (production infrastructure was running full bore). This year more investment in Saudi Arabia infrastructure meant there's now more capacity and the price began to drop.
"Spare Capacity" is the amount of production capacity your infrastructure can do at maximum above what the current production rate is. That is, it's the amount that production can be increased. Too much spare capacity and prices are low, whereas too little spare capacity leads to high oil prices and demand destruction. "Demand destruction" means people being priced out of the market and looking for alternatives.
Components of future crude oil production:- 1 trillion barrels claimed in IHS databases, 445 billion barrels in Tar Sands, unknown further amounts from future exploration and enhanced oil recovery
The USGS has estimates which indicate there are future large discoveries to be made. A big question about the future of oil is the amount of future oil field discoveries. Will there be few discoveries or large discoveries? If there are large discoveries then the oil peak is pushed into the future, but if there are few discoveries then the oil peak is closer at hand.
His organization believes the USGS is incorrect and that there will be few new discoveries and no large new discoveries.
Technosanity #13: Peter Wells at ASPO-USA 2008
Links: http://audio.davidherron.com/technosanity/episode-13-plenary-vbr.mp3
Links: http://www.aspo-usa.org/aspousa4/ConfirmedSpeakers.cfm?bid=510
Links: http://www.aspo-usa.org/aspousa4/proceedings/Wells_Peter_OPEC_ASPOUSA2008.pdf
bio: http://www.aspo-usa.org/aspousa4/ConfirmedSpeakers.cfm?bid=510
slides: http://www.aspo-usa.org/aspousa4/proceedings/Wells_Peter_OPEC_ASPOUSA2008.pdf
Oil geologist and other work in the oil industry in the Middle East, former Soviet Union, West Aftrica, etc. Currently working as a consultant with one contract being Toyota. Toyota had studied and internalized Peak Oil long ago, and 6 yrs later developed the Prius.
OPEC countries are the major oil producers. They produce 43% of world oil, and this is growing. They have a dilemna about investing in more production capacity. They are being asked to make more investment but they did so in the 1980's only to see demand dry up. They are reluctant to make more investments which will sit idle.
Venezuela & Iran & Iraq are a bloc of OPEC which want high prices. Many countries, especially middle east, see their oil as a National Heritage which they can leave to their grand-children. If they use it all up doing production at the highest rate possible then their National Heritage will be gone. Hence the middle east countries are likely to limit oil production for this reason.
OPEC exploration success peaked 40 years ago. In general there has been little success with oil exploration for a very very very long time (40 years). The argument is there are no major oil fields left to find.
He showed several charts of all the liquid fuels. The "liquids model" includes all forms of liquid fuels, including liquified natural gas, biofuels, tar sands, etc. Everything but crude oil is a miniscule slice compared to what crude oil supplies. For these other sources to replace crude oil is a huge leap to accomplish.
There was a price floor of $20/bbl which is the amount Saudi Arabia required to run their country. In 2002 the oil prices began to rise. Around that time the 'spare capacity' started peaking (production infrastructure was running full bore). This year more investment in Saudi Arabia infrastructure meant there's now more capacity and the price began to drop.
"Spare Capacity" is the amount of production capacity your infrastructure can do at maximum above what the current production rate is. That is, it's the amount that production can be increased. Too much spare capacity and prices are low, whereas too little spare capacity leads to high oil prices and demand destruction. "Demand destruction" means people being priced out of the market and looking for alternatives.
Components of future crude oil production:- 1 trillion barrels claimed in IHS databases, 445 billion barrels in Tar Sands, unknown further amounts from future exploration and enhanced oil recovery
The USGS has estimates which indicate there are future large discoveries to be made. A big question about the future of oil is the amount of future oil field discoveries. Will there be few discoveries or large discoveries? If there are large discoveries then the oil peak is pushed into the future, but if there are few discoveries then the oil peak is closer at hand.
His organization believes the USGS is incorrect and that there will be few new discoveries and no large new discoveries.
Technosanity #13: Peter Wells at ASPO-USA 2008
Links: http://audio.davidherron.com/technosanity/episode-13-plenary-vbr.mp3
Links: http://www.aspo-usa.org/aspousa4/ConfirmedSpeakers.cfm?bid=510
Links: http://www.aspo-usa.org/aspousa4/proceedings/Wells_Peter_OPEC_ASPOUSA2008.pdf
Sunday, October 12, 2008
Technosanity #12: Peak Oil and the Media (from Radio Ecoshock)
Republished from http://www.ecoshock.org/2008/08/peak-oil-and-media.html
-- a panel discussion about Peak Oil and its coverage in the Media.
What we can do. Vancouverpeakoil.org presents a panel of 5 journalists:
Rex Weyler, Barbara Jaffe, Charlie Smith, Sara Robinson and Alex Smith.
How to organize, use media, bypass the mainstream.
It is production that has peaked. It doesn't matter if there are trillions of barrels of oil left, what matters is to get that oil and bring it to market. There are only a couple rigs capable of drilling oil in the Arctic and it costs $1billion apiece to build new oil rigs. Somehow tapping Arctic oil would require building new rigs, new oil pipelines, etc, and is there money to do all the required investment? Or even is new oil something we want to invest in, given the negative environmental impact.
Energy Return on Investment (EROI) is another factor.. The peak net EROI occurred 30 years ago. Deposits like the tar sands have an EROI of 1:1 meaning you extract the same energy from the tar sands that you put in. It's not profitable by any measure yet they're committing ecological catastrophes in the name of mining it. And it requires government subsidy to even get what little profit there is.
Price isn't determined, any more, by the old style price/demand equations. Price isn't being set by the world market. Instead it is access. The Iraq war is being fought to establish access. The term is "off-take deals" referring to special deals like "We'll give you $n billion and take everything in sight". The Chinese especially are doing this, rather than doing war. Resources controlled by off-take deals never get to market and the price is not the market price but whatever was negotiated in the deal.
The strength of empires has been determined repeatedly by the energy resources. The most recent was England whose strength came from their coal deposits. When their coal became eclipsed by American coal, they were eclipsed, and again when Americans discovered oil, that doubly eclipsed the British Empire.
We're talking about a finite resource and the math isn't very simple. A great analogy was made to what happens if you repeatedly take food out of a refrigerator. Eventually you run out and go to the store to buy more. In this case the refrigerator is the oil deposits, but there is no store to go to.
Technosanity #12: Peak Oil and the Media (from Radio Ecoshock)
Links: PEAK OIL AND THE MEDIA
Links: http://www.vancouverpeakoil.org/
Links: http://www.thetyee.ca/
Links: http://www.ecoshock.org/
Links: http://www.ecoshock.net/eshock08/ES_080829_Show.mp3
It is production that has peaked. It doesn't matter if there are trillions of barrels of oil left, what matters is to get that oil and bring it to market. There are only a couple rigs capable of drilling oil in the Arctic and it costs $1billion apiece to build new oil rigs. Somehow tapping Arctic oil would require building new rigs, new oil pipelines, etc, and is there money to do all the required investment? Or even is new oil something we want to invest in, given the negative environmental impact.
Energy Return on Investment (EROI) is another factor.. The peak net EROI occurred 30 years ago. Deposits like the tar sands have an EROI of 1:1 meaning you extract the same energy from the tar sands that you put in. It's not profitable by any measure yet they're committing ecological catastrophes in the name of mining it. And it requires government subsidy to even get what little profit there is.
Price isn't determined, any more, by the old style price/demand equations. Price isn't being set by the world market. Instead it is access. The Iraq war is being fought to establish access. The term is "off-take deals" referring to special deals like "We'll give you $n billion and take everything in sight". The Chinese especially are doing this, rather than doing war. Resources controlled by off-take deals never get to market and the price is not the market price but whatever was negotiated in the deal.
The strength of empires has been determined repeatedly by the energy resources. The most recent was England whose strength came from their coal deposits. When their coal became eclipsed by American coal, they were eclipsed, and again when Americans discovered oil, that doubly eclipsed the British Empire.
We're talking about a finite resource and the math isn't very simple. A great analogy was made to what happens if you repeatedly take food out of a refrigerator. Eventually you run out and go to the store to buy more. In this case the refrigerator is the oil deposits, but there is no store to go to.
Technosanity #12: Peak Oil and the Media (from Radio Ecoshock)
Links: PEAK OIL AND THE MEDIA
Links: http://www.vancouverpeakoil.org/
Links: http://www.thetyee.ca/
Links: http://www.ecoshock.org/
Links: http://www.ecoshock.net/eshock08/ES_080829_Show.mp3
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