Peter Wells.. Neftex Petroleum Consultants, Ltd
bio: http://www.aspo-usa.org/aspousa4/ConfirmedSpeakers.cfm?bid=510
slides: http://www.aspo-usa.org/aspousa4/proceedings/Wells_Peter_OPEC_ASPOUSA2008.pdf
Oil geologist and other work in the oil industry in the Middle East,
former Soviet Union, West Aftrica, etc. Currently working as a
consultant with one contract being Toyota. Toyota had studied and
internalized Peak Oil long ago, and 6 yrs later developed the Prius.
OPEC countries are the major oil producers. They produce 43% of
world oil, and this is growing. They have a dilemna about investing in
more production capacity. They are being asked to make more investment
but they did so in the 1980's only to see demand dry up. They are
reluctant to make more investments which will sit idle.
Venezuela & Iran & Iraq are a bloc of OPEC which want high
prices. Many countries, especially middle east, see their oil as a
National Heritage which they can leave to their grand-children. If they
use it all up doing production at the highest rate possible then their
National Heritage will be gone. Hence the middle east countries are
likely to limit oil production for this reason.
OPEC exploration success peaked 40 years ago. In general there has
been little success with oil exploration for a very very very long time
(40 years). The argument is there are no major oil fields left to find.
He showed several charts of all the liquid fuels. The "liquids
model" includes all forms of liquid fuels, including liquified natural
gas, biofuels, tar sands, etc. Everything but crude oil is a miniscule
slice compared to what crude oil supplies. For these other sources to
replace crude oil is a huge leap to accomplish.
There was a price floor of $20/bbl which is the amount Saudi Arabia
required to run their country. In 2002 the oil prices began to rise.
Around that time the 'spare capacity' started peaking (production
infrastructure was running full bore). This year more investment in
Saudi Arabia infrastructure meant there's now more capacity and the
price began to drop.
"Spare Capacity" is the amount of production capacity your
infrastructure can do at maximum above what the current production rate
is. That is, it's the amount that production can be increased. Too
much spare capacity and prices are low, whereas too little spare
capacity leads to high oil prices and demand destruction. "Demand
destruction" means people being priced out of the market and looking for
alternatives.
Components of future crude oil production:- 1 trillion barrels
claimed in IHS databases, 445 billion barrels in Tar Sands, unknown
further amounts from future exploration and enhanced oil recovery
The USGS has estimates which indicate there are future large
discoveries to be made. A big question about the future of oil is the
amount of future oil field discoveries. Will there be few discoveries
or large discoveries? If there are large discoveries then the oil peak
is pushed into the future, but if there are few discoveries then the oil
peak is closer at hand.
His organization believes the USGS is incorrect and that there will be few new discoveries and no large new discoveries.
Technosanity #13: Peter Wells at ASPO-USA 2008
Links: http://audio.davidherron.com/technosanity/episode-13-plenary-vbr.mp3
Links: http://www.aspo-usa.org/aspousa4/ConfirmedSpeakers.cfm?bid=510
Links: http://www.aspo-usa.org/aspousa4/proceedings/Wells_Peter_OPEC_ASPOUSA2008.pdf
No comments:
Post a Comment